$88M whale short, tariff shock & more…

The crash was largely a matter of timing – both politically and psychologically.

Source: Cryptoquant

Retail wallets piled into BTC right at $122K, again.

This is the fourth time in months they’ve bought big at local tops, only to get dumped on by whales. Meanwhile, long-term holders (LTHs) didn’t budge; exchange reserves continued dropping, a sign of steady accumulation.

Political shocks create short-term panic, but it seems it’s always the same players who react.

Will October surprise us all?

So far, we’ve seen panic-selling, political shocks, and classic short-term mistakes, but zooming out reveals something interesting.

Source: X

October price declines of more than 5% have occurred only four times in the past decade, specifically in 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2021. Each time, Bitcoin rebounded within a week, often with double-digit gains. Economist Timothy Peterson highlighted 7-day recoveries of up to 21% following these rare October dips.

Now, in October 2025, we may be witnessing a similar setup. If the pattern holds, this pullback could be a reset before the next leg upward.