Global Bitcoin Arms Race Could Emerge Within 3 Years

A global contest to accumulate Bitcoin could emerge within the next few years, according to Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead.

The crypto executive shared this outlook during a conference hosted by Ondo. He framed the possibility as an early signal of a broader shift in how nations think about reserves and financial strategy.

Key Points

• Pantera Capital predicts 3–4 regional blocs may each target 1 million Bitcoin within 2–3 years.
• The U.S. and UAE are already exploring digital asset strategies, signaling growing national interest.
• Geopolitical considerations could drive nations, including China, to diversify reserves away from assets vulnerable to U.S. influence.

Global Competition for Bitcoin Reserves

Morehead told attendees that several regional alliances may begin building sizable Bitcoin positions. He expects three or four blocs to target holdings of roughly 1 million BTC each within 2 to 3 years, a move he views as the beginning of a new phase in sovereign reserve management.

He pointed to what he considers early indicators of this transition. For instance, the United States is exploring a strategic Bitcoin reserve, while the United Arab Emirates is increasing its exposure to digital assets. These developments suggest that digital assets are moving closer to the center of national financial planning.

Morehead extended this argument into the geopolitical arena. Countries that are politically misaligned with Washington, he suggested, may rethink where and how they store national wealth. Assets perceived as vulnerable to U.S. influence could lose appeal, prompting diversification. He cited China as an example of a nation that might reassess the composition of its reserves under such pressures.

Although Morehead described the scenario of sovereign Bitcoin accumulation as his most unconventional forecast, he characterized it as a rational response to evolving global alliances and financial realities.

Market Conditions and Price Milestones

At the same time, Morehead addressed current market conditions. Crypto markets have faced pressure in 2025, with prices declining roughly 10% last year. However, he characterized the downturn as consistent with past market cycles rather than a structural breakdown.

To illustrate his confidence, he referenced Pantera Capital’s prior price projection, which anticipated Bitcoin reaching $117,452 on August 11, 2025 — a target he noted was met on the predicted date.

Since then, prices have retreated. At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at $68,274, down 46% from an all-time high of $126,080 recorded on October 6, 2025. Nevertheless, in Morehead’s view, these fluctuations reflect typical volatility rather than deteriorating fundamentals.

Institutional Demand and Structural Drivers

Beyond short-term price action, Morehead emphasized structural demand trends. He said publicly listed exchange-traded funds and corporate treasury firms have collectively acquired more than $100 billion in crypto assets, a level of inflow he interprets as evidence of sustained institutional engagement.

In addition, he pointed to macroeconomic dynamics. Annual monetary debasement of roughly 3%, he argued, increases the appeal of scarce assets. Within that framework, Bitcoin’s fixed supply positions it as a potential long-term store of value.

Looking forward, Morehead predicted Bitcoin would substantially outperform gold over the next decade. Despite this outlook, he noted that institutional exposure remains limited, with the median allocation among institutional investors still at zero.

Taken together, his remarks position Bitcoin as both a geopolitical hedge and a structural growth asset. Ultimately, in his view, sovereign reserve experimentation and expanding institutional participation could define the market’s next phase.