The XRP price has dropped in 7 of 11 Februarys since 2014, averaging a 3% monthly loss. The worst months saw brutal price declines: XRP’s (CRYPTO: XRP) value plunged 33.4% in February 2014 and fell 22.1% in February 2018. 2026 looks different as XRP has crashed over 30% this month, touching $1.11 before rebounding to $1.40. The question now is whether the damage is done or just getting started.
Four factors suggest XRP’s February curse could finally break: ETF inflows creating a floor, regulatory clarity, an already-compressed starting price, and low funding rates. None of this guarantees a reversal, but the setup is unlike any prior February.
Four Factors That Could Break XRP’s February Curse
The four factors below suggest the XRP February curse could finally break.
ETF Inflows Create a Floor
For the first time, XRP has built-in institutional buyers in February. U.S. spot XRP ETFs launched in November 2025 and have pulled in over $1.3 billion in cumulative inflows. These ETFs went roughly 43 consecutive trading days without a single outflow since launch—something Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs couldn’t match in their early days.
This kind of sustained demand didn’t exist in prior Februarys. Even as the XRP price dipped in the first weeks of February 2026, institutions continued accumulating through the volatility. That steady bid creates a floor that prior Februarys never had.
SEC Clarity After Four Years
Every prior February from 2014 through 2025 had the looming uncertainty of Ripple’s SEC lawsuit, but that regulatory overhang is now gone. On August 7, 2025, the SEC and Ripple filed a joint stipulation to dismiss their respective appeals, officially ending nearly five years of litigation. The ruling confirmed that XRP is not a security when traded on public exchanges.
With that burden lifted, one major source of investor fear has been removed. In past years, SEC uncertainty may have amplified XR’sP February weakness. In 2026, that risk no longer exists.
An Already Compressed Starting Point
The XRP price entered February 2026 already beaten down. Trading around $1.45 as of mid-February, the token sits roughly 60% below its $3.65 peak from July 2025. In simple terms, there’s less room to fall.
Falling 20% from $2.00 is easier than falling 20% from $1.37. In most prior Februarys, XRP started at much higher relative levels, leaving more room for declines. Some analysts argue the February curse has already played out in the early-month crash to $1.11.
Funding Rates Signal Exhaustion
XRP’s funding rate on Binance dropped to -0.028%, its lowest reading since April 2025. A negative funding rate means short sellers are crowded and paying a premium to hold their positions—meaning the easy selling is already done.
Historically, extremely low funding rates have preceded bounces. In April 2025, funding rates hit similar lows before the XRP price rallied from roughly $1.60 to $3.65 by mid-July. When almost everyone is already short, there’s limited fresh selling left. If this pattern plays out, XRP could see a sharp reversal above $2 before the month ends.
Why the XRP February Curse Could Continue
The bullish signals are real, but so are the risks. XRP rarely moves independently from Bitcoin, and when Bitcoin falls, XRP typically falls harder. Right now, Bitcoin hovers near $65,000, its weakest level in over a year. High rates and risk aversion continue pressuring the entire crypto market, and XRP is getting dragged down with it.
The damage is already done. XRP’s value has dropped over 30% this month, and if February ended today, it would rank among the worst on record. Ending the month with even a small gain would require a sharp rally from here, and with Bitcoin still weak, that rally has no obvious catalyst. Until Bitcoin stabilizes, the February curse has more room to run.
What Would Confirm XRP Broke the Pattern
Breaking the February curse would require an unlikely surge. To close February positive, the XRP price needs to reclaim $2.05, where it opened on February 1. From $1.45, that means a 40% rally in the final two weeks.
It’s not impossible, but based on the broader market sentiment, the chances are slim. Just to keep losses under the historical 3% average, XRP would need to reach $1.94—and that’s still a 30% move.
February will likely end in the red, but the losses could be smaller than the brutal first week. If ETF inflows continue and the XRP price stabilizes above $1.50, the damage may be contained—but a drop below $1.00 would confirm the curse still holds.
Can XRP Break the Curse?
The February curse has held for over a decade, but 2026 has a setup that prior years didn’t. ETF demand, regulatory clarity, and exhausted sellers all favor a reversal. The question is whether that’s enough to overcome a weak Bitcoin and lingering macro pressure.
XRP has already dropped 30% this month. If it holds above $1.50 and ETF inflows continue, the curse may finally crack. If it breaks below $1.00, history wins again.
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