World Liberty Financial price, or the WLFI price, surged nearly 20% over the past 24 hours, triggering optimism across holders. But three separate metrics now reveal hidden risks beneath the surface strength.
Distribution happening across whale cohorts and mid-term holders preparing exits create consolidation pressure that could derail the pattern entirely. Or, is the WLFI price action planning a plot twist here?
Cup Pattern Needs Controlled Consolidation Above $0.105
The 8-hour chart shows a rounded bottom structure resembling a cup. The cup itself has already completed, given the recent price recovery. Now WLFI needs to form the handle through controlled consolidation before attempting the next breakout.
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The key detail is the upsloping neckline connecting the rim of the cup on both sides. The left rim formed at an earlier high while the right rim sits at a higher level. This upward slope indicates that buyers are willing to pay higher prices over time, creating structural strength. The neckline must be broken upward to complete the pattern and trigger the measured 17% move.
Between February 4 and February 18, a hidden bearish divergence formed on the 8-hour timeframe. WLFI price made a lower high after peaking at $0.119. During that same period, the Relative Strength Index made a higher high. RSI measures momentum strength by comparing the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses.
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When price makes lower highs, but RSI makes higher highs, it signals that a pullback could be coming.
The divergence could actually be constructive for the pattern. Cup formations require a handle to complete properly. The handle forms through sideways or slight downward price movement that shakes out weak hands before the next explosive move.
The critical level is $0.105. As long as WLFI consolidates without breaking below this support, the pattern and breakout possibility remain intact. A measured move from the cup’s low to the neckline projects a breakout target of $0.142, representing approximately 17% additional upside from the possible breakout point.
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Mega-Whales Sold 1.1 Billion Tokens as Long Positions Diverged
While new whale cohorts accumulated approximately 25 million WLFI tokens during the past 24 hours, the largest holders moved in the opposite direction.
Mega-whale addresses holding more than 1 billion tokens have been steadily reducing their positions since February 6. On February 17, during the price rally, they dropped holdings dramatically from 9.45 billion to 8.35 billion WLFI. That represents 1.1 billion tokens sold directly into the strength.
The price did not crash because smaller whales and leveraged long positions absorbed the selling.
But the distribution creates overhead pressure.
Data from Hyperliquid derivatives exchange shows diverging behavior across different WLFI trader cohorts over the past 24 hours. General whale addresses increased their long positions by 68%, showing continued optimism.
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But the top 100 addresses (mega whales) by trading volume reduced long positions significantly.
Smart Money, which tracks positioning by experienced traders, shows a net short position over the past 24 hours, hinting at caution.
This creates a dangerous setup where smaller participants are buying and adding leverage while the largest and most sophisticated players distribute and position defensively.
The rally relied on smaller whale buying and leverage rather than conviction from mega-whales. If consolidation turns into a long squeeze where leveraged longs get forced to sell, the pullback could accelerate beyond the healthy handle formation needed for pattern completion.
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Mid-Term Holders Activate 500 Million Tokens for Exit, Could This Impact the WLFI Price?
The third warning comes from on-chain activity metrics. Spent Coins Age Band tracks coin movement from specific holder cohorts based on how long they held the tokens. The 90-day to 180-day age band represents mid-term holders who acquired WLFI between three and six months ago.
Before February 17, this cohort showed activity of approximately 949,000 tokens moving. Between February 17 and 18, that number exploded to over 500 million tokens.
This represents a 500-times increase in coin activity from mid-term WLFI holders. When holders who sat through months of price action suddenly activate coins en masse, it typically means preparation for exit. They see the 20% rally as their opportunity to take profits after months of waiting. The 500 million tokens moving creates significant potential selling pressure on top of the 1.1 billion already sold by mega-whales and the cautious positioning by Smart Money.
All three risks point toward consolidation. The 8-hour chart RSI divergence predicts it. Mega-whales selling 1.1 billion confirms it. Mid-term holders activating 500 million validates it. The consolidation is healthy and necessary for handle formation if it stays controlled above $0.105 and respects the upsloping neckline. But the market remains weak broadly.
Fibonacci extension to the downside projects $0.090 or lower if the pattern breaks, invalidating the entire setup.
On the upside, breaking above $0.119 reactivates bullish momentum with first resistance at $0.132 before the main pattern target of $0.142. The $0.105 level decides everything. Controlled consolidation above it allows the cup to complete its handle. Breakdown below it turns the distribution into a cascade.