Backtesting the 1M Triangle Breakout Shows XRP Eyes $19

An XRP Fibonacci extension target now eyes a two-digit price after XRP’s price successfully backtested its 1-month triangle breakout.

XRP has faced bearish pressure over the past few months alongside a broader market downturn. As a result, prices have collapsed since XRP reached the $3.66 peak in July 2025. Currently trading for $1.42, XRP has dropped by more than 61% from the $3.66 peak, recording six monthly red candles out of seven since then.

Interestingly, XRP’s latest downtrend aligns with a backtest of an earlier symmetrical triangle breakout that occurred in November 2024. With the latest drop to the $1.11 floor, XRP retested the support at the upper trendline of this triangle and recovered immediately, successfully backtesting the breakout.

Key Points

• XRP has been at the mercy of the bears since the $3.66 peak in July 2025, now down 61% from this high amid six monthly red candles.
• This downtrend comes as the broader market suffers intense selling pressure that has wiped out $1.52 trillion from the crypto market since October 2025.
• Amid the downward push, XRP suffered a sharp decline on Feb. 5, leading to a 15-month low of $1.11.
• Market data confirms that this crash helped XRP retest the upper trendline of a multi-year symmetrical triangle it broke out of in November 2024.
• XRP recovered immediately from this $1.11 floor, successfully backtesting the symmetrical triangle breakout, with Fibonacci extension levels pointing to a $19 target.

XRP Pulls Back After Triangle Breakout

This came from an analysis from “XRP Captain,” a pseudonymous market commentator and XRP community member. Notably, data from his chart shows that the ongoing XRP downturn, which has led to 61% in losses, actually represents a natural pullback after a symmetrical triangle breakout.

For context, the symmetrical triangle started forming after XRP dropped from the $3.31 high in January 2018. From here, prices saw lower highs and lower lows, forming a symmetrical triangle that lasted for nearly eight years. A breakout occurred in November 2024, when the Trump-inspired upsurge pushed XRP from $0.5 to above $2.

The breakout rally spilled into 2025, eventually taking XRP to a new all-time high of $3.6 in July 2025. However, from this peak, a pullback emerged, leading to the ongoing downtrend. This pullback is a natural next step after a triangle breakout to test the strength of the breakout before the next leg up.

Successful Backtest of the Triangle Breakout

The downturn intensified as the market entered this month, with a steep decline coming on Feb. 5. Specifically, XRP crashed by more than 19% on that day, marking its largest intraday decline since May 2021. Interestingly, this Feb. 5 crash, which took prices to a low of $1.11, helped XRP to retest the upper trendline of the symmetrical triangle.

Following this retest, XRP immediately recovered, now changing hands at $1.42. This event marked a successful backtest of the symmetrical triangle breakout, confirming that the breakout featured sufficient strength to push prices to greater heights.

From here, XRP now eyes higher targets, with the 1.272 Fibonacci level around $5 representing the first extension beyond the July peak of $3.66. Beyond this, XRP eyes the Fibonacci 2.618 extension at $19.4, marking the ultimate target on the 1-month chart. XRP would need to surge 1,266% from the current price to reach $19.4.