Bitcoin has slipped below its True Market Mean, a critical on-chain metric currently around $79K, signaling renewed market contraction. Glassnode reported that this break marks the beginning of a mid-term defensive phase.
The Realized Price at $54.9K is a strong support level. Historically, these two levels have capped large price movements, and this is a strong indication that Bitcoin will likely trade between $55K and $79K over the next few weeks unless a surprising macro event occurs.
Source: Glassnode
The market has been in a contraction phase since late January. The prices have been dropping calmly, not in a panic.
The demand in the $60K-$69K range, which has been accumulated largely in the first half of 2024, has absorbed most of the selling pressure. The investors who purchased in this range have held their coins for more than a year, so there have been fewer small sales.
Also Read: Bitcoin (BTC) Eyes Bullish March Rebound Above $69K Support
Early Bear Market Signs in Profit/Loss and ETF Flows
Market data shows that the Accumulation Trend Score (ATS), which measures net changes across wallet cohorts, has moved from weak distribution (<0.1) to a neutral level near 0.43.
This indicates that aggressive selling has eased, but strong accumulation from larger holders has yet to return.
Source: Glassnode
A sustained rise in ATS would signal renewed institutional accumulation, potentially stabilizing the current range, while stagnation could reinforce structural fragility.
Liquidity is tight. The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio, which reflects the rotation of capital, has fallen to the range of 1-2, which is typically observed in the early bear market phase. ETF flows also reflect weakness, with US spot ETFs making losses as Bitcoin tests the $70K region.
Source: Glassnode
Spot trading volumes on large exchanges such as Binance and Coinbase are lower, reflecting increased selling activity rather than a lack of liquidity.
Bitcoin Perpetual Funding Rates Turn Neutral to Negative
Derivatives markets are being cautious at the moment. Perpetual funding rates have decreased from positive levels during the rally at around $120K to more neutral or negative at around $70K.
Source: Glassnode
This is indicative of long leverage being unwound as traders hedge against downside risk rather than positioning for further upside.
The volatility measures also follow the same trend. The one-month implied volatility decreased from 80% to around 47%, and the 25-delta skew also decreased from 20% to 11%, indicating less panic hedging.
Source: Glassnode
The traders are slowly letting go of the $60K put premiums that they had purchased during the crash, but they are still being very cautious.
Also Read: Bitcoin Set to Skyrocket: $70K Resistance in Sight