A fresh wave of XRP withdrawals has caught market attention. On Feb 21, market observer Diana reported that 200 million XRP had been pulled off Binance within 10 days. During the same period, Binance’s XRP supply ratio dropped from 0.027 to 0.025.
Large exchange outflows often signal that holders are moving tokens into cold storage, custodial services, or long-term wallets. In simple terms, fewer coins remain available on trading platforms for immediate sale. That reduces the liquid supply sitting on order books.
A shrinking exchange balance does not necessarily mean that prices will surge. A supply shock is only significant if demand increases, but the number of tokens decreases. Even if buyers do not begin to purchase more, prices can remain tranquil despite shrinking reserves.
The critical question at this point is whether demand will begin to increase while exchange balances continue to shrink. If buyers begin to buy heavily when there are fewer tokens on offer, prices can rise more quickly.
XRP Chart Shows Broader Downtrend Still Intact
According to TradingView data from Feb 21, XRP/USD is still in a steady downtrend that began after its late 2025 high at approximately $2.40. Since then, the market has been establishing a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows.
The 20, 50, 100, and 200 EMAs are aligned in a descending manner. The 200 EMA is close to $2.10, which is much higher than the current price, thus putting additional pressure on the price from the long-term perspective. XRP is still below the 20 and 50 EMAs, ranging between $1.49 and $1.68.
For XRP to experience a positive momentum in the short term, it has to close above the short-term averages. If so, it would be a good sign to return to the $1.68 to $1.89 range, which is where the 100 EMA and the previous breakdown level meet.
Support at $1.20 Becomes Critical Pivot
The Ichimoku Cloud indicates weak conditions. The price is below the cloud, which indicates further red prices and constant pressure on the downside. Both the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen remain above the current price, thus forming a dynamic resistance.
However, the recent price movement indicates stabilization. There was a strong drop to $1.20, forming a long lower wick, which indicates strong dip buying. Since then, XRP has been trading in a tight range between $1.42 and $1.48.
The key support is in the $1.20 to $1.25 region. If it holds above that level, a possible small bounce to $1.53 and perhaps $1.68 could be seen. If it breaks above $1.68, the short-term momentum may turn positive and head towards the $1.89 to $2.10 resistance level.
On the flip side, a break below $1.40 would likely see the return of selling pressure, and $1.20 would become a key level again. Currently, the reduction in selling pressure and resistance levels converges, making it a critical point for XRP.
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