SOL, with RSI at 33.69 approaching the oversold region, the positive MACD histogram gives a hidden recovery signal in momentum; however, trading below short-term EMAs confirms the downtrend and caution is advised.
Trend Status and Momentum Analysis
SOL’s current price is at 80.56 dollars, with a 4.67% drop in the last 24 hours, and the daily range realized between 77.15-84.63 dollars. The overall trend direction is confirmed as downward, the Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal, and the 98.24 dollar resistance is prominent. However, momentum indicators are producing mixed signals: while RSI is near the oversold threshold, the MACD histogram is trading at positive values, signaling a potential momentum shift. Volume is high at 4.08 billion dollars, indicating the drop is strong but carrying elements that could point to accumulation. 9 strong levels were detected in multiple time frames (MTF); 1D has 2 supports/3 resistances, 3D has 1 support/2 resistances, and 1W has 1 support/2 resistances configuration. This could increase short-term volatility and highlight critical breakout points for momentum traders. Trend strength appears to be weakening, as the price continues to stay below EMA20 (88.61 dollars), reinforcing the bearish short-term pressure.
RSI Indicator: Buy or Sell?
RSI Divergence Analysis
RSI(14) is currently at 33.69, positioned just above the oversold region (below 30). Despite recent price drops, no regular bearish divergence is observed in RSI; on the contrary, there’s horizontal stabilization and a slight recovery tendency at low levels, suggesting potential hidden bullish divergence. Over the last few days, while prices made new lows, RSI held higher lows, indicating momentum is starting to exhaust and buyers may enter. To confirm divergence, watch for RSI to break above 40; if it happens, it would be a strong buy momentum signal. Historically, the 30-35 RSI band for SOL has been critical for bottom formations, with rallies starting from there producing 20-30% moves.
Overbought/Oversold Regions
The oversold region (below 30) has not yet been fully tested, but the 33.69 value signals oversold conditions and increases the likelihood of a short-term rebound. As price approaches the 77.28 dollar support, RSI is expected to drop to the 25-30 band, creating a classic oversold bounce opportunity. However, due to the downtrend, there’s a high risk these bounces remain limited; RSI crossing above 50 is mandatory for trend change. From a momentum confluence perspective, RSI’s low level supports the positive MACD histogram and improves the overall momentum picture.
MACD Signals and Histogram Dynamics
The MACD indicator is in bullish status; the histogram is expanding at positive values, showing momentum slowly turning upward even within the downtrend. Although the signal line crossover hasn’t occurred yet, the MACD line is above the signal line, and the growing histogram bars confirm increasing buyer pressure. Despite the drop in the last 24 hours, the histogram staying positive signals weakening bears and stealth accumulation by bulls. From a divergence perspective, the MACD histogram turning positive while price falls can be interpreted as bullish divergence; this configuration has led to trend reversals in SOL historically. The histogram expanding without narrowing indicates strengthening momentum and approaching a potential crossover signal. For traders, the critical point is holding above the zero line; a break below accelerates bearish momentum.
EMA Systems and Trend Strength
Short-Term EMAs
Price trading below the short-term EMA20 (88.61 dollars) confirms the bearish short-term trend, with compression in the EMA ribbon. The negative slope between EMA10 and EMA20 shows weak momentum, but approaching the ribbon’s lower band creates an opportunity for support testing. In short-term trend strength measurement, the downward EMA slope gives a 60% bearish score; breaking EMA20 is required for recovery.
Medium/Long-Term EMA Supports
Medium-term EMA50 and EMA200 levels form support in the 90-95 dollar band, but price staying distant weakens trend strength. EMA ribbon dynamics are neutral long-term but show bearish squeeze short-to-medium term. EMA alignment for trend strength is disrupted; in a bullish scenario, approach to EMA50 (around 92 dollars) should be monitored. Lack of volume confirmation weakens EMA tests and limits momentum confluence.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC is currently at 66,257 dollars with a 2.50% drop in downtrend; main supports at 65,632, 62,996, and 60,000 dollars. BTC Supertrend is bearish, and rising dominance creates pressure on altcoins. SOL shows high correlation with BTC (%0.85+); if BTC drops below 65k, SOL could lose the 74 dollar support. Conversely, if BTC breaks 67,640 resistance, it opens room for SOL to move to 86.67 dollars. Since BTC movements dominate SOL momentum, BTC key levels (67k R, 65k S) should be closely followed; altcoin rallies remain limited without BTC recovery.
Momentum Result and Expectations
In the momentum analysis synthesis, RSI oversold (33.69) and MACD positive histogram confluence draws bullish reversal potential, but EMA bearish short-term and overall downtrend dominate. Volume is high but distribution-leaning; accumulation awaits RSI divergence confirmation. Bullish target 108.12 dollars (score 55), bearish 45.40 dollars (score 22); short-term, if 77.28 support holds, expect bounce, if broken, deepening. Detailed data can be reviewed in SOL Spot Analysis and SOL Futures Analysis. Momentum traders should be prepared for volatility and act on confluence signals. Overall outlook is cautiously optimistic: oversold conditions attract bottom hunters, but BTC correlation is a risk factor.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.