XRP could soon initiate the rally for its current Phase 4 wave, as targets push to as high as $21.5, aligning with a key Fibonacci extension.
The broader crypto market has found some relief from the current downtrend, and XRP has leveraged this upward push to record some mild gains. While up 9.4% since yesterday, market data suggests that the real rally has still not materialized.
Notably, XRP currently trades in the fourth stage of a 4-phase market cycle, which began as far back as mid-2017. This Phase 4 typically features rapid upward swings, and XRP eyes $21.5 as its ultimate target for when the real upsurge finally begins.
Key Points
- XRP has hopped on the latest market-wide recovery effort, posting a 9.4% gain since yesterday, as the price holds above $1.45.
- Despite the recent upward push, market data shows the real rally has still not materialized.
- XRP currently trades within the fourth stage of a 4-phase cycle that began in mid-2017, when it soared to $0.38 and faced resistance.
- Historical data indicates that Phase 4 often features rapid price upswings, and XRP could rally to $21.5 if the pattern holds.
XRP Phase 4 Rally About to Begin
This structure was recently highlighted by CW, a prominent market analyst, amid the ongoing market rebound push. For context, the broader crypto market recovered a whopping $134 billion in global valuation yesterday alone, as the global market cap rose 6.12%.
XRP hopped on this uptrend to post a 6.36% rise yesterday. It has since extended the rally to this morning, compounding the gains to 9% since yesterday. With the ongoing relief bounce, CW recently suggested that XRP’s Phase 4 rally had still not materialized, but was on the verge of starting. According to him, an XRP trend reversal signal is now imminent.
Data from the accompanying chart shows that XRP is still currently seeing a red 3-week candlestick, but the loss has so far drastically reduced to just -0.52%. CW insisted that this candlestick would soon flip green as XRP continues to record gains, potentially marking the first green 3-week candlestick since mid-January and the second one this year.
According to him, amid the appearance of a green 3-week candlestick, the sub-indicator on the chart, which resembles a momentum oscillator, could soon record a golden cross. He believes these factors would lead to the imminent Phase 4 upsurge. “The real rally of Phase 4 is about to begin,” he remarked.
The 4-Phase Market Cycle
Notably, further chart data confirms that the current 4-phase market cycle actually began as far back as May 2017, after XRP faced a roadblock at $0.39.
Specifically, the correction that followed the $0.39 roadblock marked the start of Phase 1, with a consolidation that lasted for six months. Following the consolidation, XRP soared to $3.3 by January 2018, leading to the end of Phase 1.
Phase 2 began after XRP dropped from the $3.3 peak, dropped to a bottom of $0.1140 by March 2020, and then recovered to a high of $1.96 by April 2021. This $1.96 top marked the end of Phase 2. After this, Phase 3 began with a pullback from $1.96 and ended as XRP traded around a range of $0.5 and $0.6 in November 2024.
Meanwhile, the current Phase 4 started when XRP recovered from the $0.5 to $0.6 range, and soared to $3.4 by January 2025. After a pullback, XRP rallied again to $3.6 by July 2025 before correcting again. The correction has led to XRP’s current downtrend.
Upside Targets
Despite the downtrend, data shows that XRP remains within Phase 4, which represents a bullish stage for the token. CW now believes that after months of seeing lower highs and lower lows, XRP may be on the verge of engineering the Phase 4 rally.
According to him, the first target for this rally sits at the all-time high price of around $3.6, attained in July 2025. This would mark the first hurdle to the upside push and end Phase 4. After breaching this area, CW expects XRP to rally to the second target of $21.5 in Phase 1 of the new cycle, which aligns with the rare Fibonacci level around 6.618.
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