The Cardano Structure Nobody Is Talking About: Analyst

Market data indicates that every Cardano rally since the 2021 bull run has ended up at Fibonacci retracement levels lower than previous ones.

Cardano had recorded its best daily performance since May 8, 2025, just a few days back. Joining a broader market uptrend, the coin rallied over 14% from $0.25 to $0.31 before closing slightly lower.

While it has pulled back further to trade at $0.294, the rebound from a key support level signaled that buyers are still keen to keep ADA afloat. Despite these, some still believe it is game over for the cryptocurrency.

 Key Points

• Pessimism around Cardano is gaining strength again, as its broader price underperformance signals a concerning trend.
• Data show that every Cardano rally since 2021 has ended at a lower Fibonacci level than the previous one.
• ADA failed to reclaim 50% of its all-time high during the bullish phase and has retested lows recorded after the FTX implosion in November 2022.
• While most of these might be true, one glaring event during the concluding bullish phase is that altcoins generally struggled.

Concerning Cardano Trend

One such market watcher floating the “Cardano is dead” narrative again is the pseudonymous analyst “gnarleyquinn.” In a recent X post, he highlighted what he described as the ADA structure that nobody is talking about.

The analyst stressed that every Cardano rally since 2021 has ended up at a lower Fibonacci level than the previous one. An accompanying chart provides further context, identifying rally points and their corresponding Fib levels.

For context, after the September 2021 all-time high of $3.10, ADA entered a corrective phase, as is typical of every market cycle. In early November, it attempted a recovery, rallying to $2.37, but couldn’t overcome the resistance around the 0.618 Fibonacci level.

Rallies to $1.68 in January 2022, $1.32 in December 2024, and $1.091 in August 2025 followed a similar pattern. Each faced rejections at lower weekly Fib. levels of 0.50, 0.32, and 0.236, respectively.

It’s Past Midnight for Cardano

The analyst further noted that these were lower-higher moves, which breed “lower acceptance.” Notably, Cardano formed higher-highs and higher-lows price patterns after bottoming in 2023. Highs of $0.680 in December 2023, $0.810 in March 2024, and $1.32 in December 2024 confirmed this pattern before bears took over proceedings.

Again, the commentator discredited ADA for failing to reclaim 50% of its all-time high during the short bullish phase. Cardano has also dropped back to its 2023 bottom, closely aligning with the lows recorded after the FTX implosion in November 2022.

Additionally, the analyst stated that the coin has endured five years of losses, with its price more than 90% below its 2021 all-time high. Putting this together, the analysis argued it is game over and “past Midnight” for Cardano, a subtle jab at its imminent sidechain, the Midnight Network.

Unfair Criticisms?

While most of these might be true, one glaring event during the concluding bullish phase is that altcoins generally struggled. Capital did not rotate from Bitcoin to the sector as it had in past cycles, hurting overall performance.

Only a few major altcoins, such as Ethereum, BNB, and Solana, made new all-time highs during the bull run. As such, one might argue that singling out Cardano in what was a broader underperformance of the altcoin market may be disingenuous.

Despite the criticism, Cardano has continued to thrive, as whales seem drawn to the coin in the past 6 months. Founder Charles Hoskinson and other major stakeholders have also remained committed to building, believing it will prove rewarding when market conditions turn positive again. Moreover, Hoskinson has reiterated several times that focusing only on price means one has “already lost.”