Key Insights:
- Bitcoin price faced dense resistance near historic levels.
- Miners’ activity aligned with prior bull phases.
- March 18 data posed the next volatility trigger.
Bitcoin price hovered near $68,000 this week as traders weighed miner behavior and macro risk into mid-March. Analysts tracked resistance near prior-cycle highs as economic data loomed. Market participants assessed whether the current structure reflected late-cycle distribution or a renewed advance.
The broader market context around Bitcoin price remained conflicted after months of weakness. CoinGlass data showed the asset was down 14% in February, marking its fifth consecutive monthly loss. That streak last appeared in late 2018 before a multi-month recovery, which kept traders alert to a potential inflection.
Bitcoin Resistance Cluster Caps Rebound
TradingView charts showed Bitcoin attempted a push to $70,040 midweek but failed to hold gains into the close. That rejection occurred as price tested a confluence of barriers built over several cycles.
The 200-week exponential moving average sat at $68,330, while the former 2021 all-time high stood at $69,000, and the psychological $70,000 level added overhead supply.
Captain Faibik told followers on X that bulls required a weekly close above the long-term moving average to sustain upside momentum. He argued that such a move could open the path toward $80,000 in the coming sessions. That view framed the resistance band as a structural decision point rather than a minor hurdle.
At the same time, TedPillows noted that Bitcoin secured another daily close above $67,000, which he described as constructive for short-term structure. He suggested that holding this zone could allow an advance toward the $72,000 to $74,000 range. His projection depended on buyers absorbing supply clustered near multi-year technical markers.
Bitcoin Miner Activity Mirrors Prior Bull Phases
On-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant described the Miners’ Position Index as the ratio of total miner outflow to its one-year moving average. Historically, miners increased distribution into rising markets and accelerated large transfers near cycle peaks. Once bear markets took hold, their activity typically contracted.
Recent readings showed behavior consistent with earlier bull market periods rather than capitulation. Large-scale transfers associated with final cycle blow-offs had not appeared. Instead, miners maintained steady outflows without the type of spike that historically marked exhaustion.
That pattern suggested producers were managing inventory in line with constructive price action. If the market were entrenched in a bear phase, miner flows would likely have dropped sharply. Continued activity implied that operational entities still viewed current levels as part of an ongoing uptrend structure.
Macro Pivot Approaches Mid-March
Market commentator KillaXBT pointed to March 18 as the next key pivot date tied to economic releases. Over the past nine months, he observed that Bitcoin fell roughly 5% around similar data events in six instances. The only deviation occurred in May 2025, when the price rallied instead.
This time, he argued that pre-event positioning would determine whether the reaction formed a local high or a local low. That assessment placed short-term structure ahead of macro headlines. Traders, therefore, monitored order flow and leverage buildup into the data window.
Broader cycle metrics added another layer to the debate. On-chain age-band analysis showed that the cost basis of the 18- to 24-month cohort was $74,500. Analysts have treated this level as a dividing line between late bear dynamics and early bull continuation.
Failure to reclaim that cohort threshold left the market in a transitional state. However, a sustained break above it would historically align with renewed expansion phases. The confluence of miner resilience, resistance clustering, and macro timing created a compressed setup.
Bitcoin price now faces an immediate test of whether buyers can convert overhead supply into support before the mid-March data release. A decisive weekly close above the long-term average would shift structure, while rejection would keep volatility elevated into the next monthly candle.