XRP price declined after President Donald Trump confirmed major US combat operations against Iran. The announcement followed reports of US and Israeli missile strikes. Rising geopolitical tension triggered a broad sell-off across digital assets.
The XRP price dropped to $1.27, erasing early 2026 gains from $2.40. As of press time, it is trading near $1.32. The token is down 2.02% over the past 24 hours and 30.51% over the past month.
Source: TradingView; XRP Price Daily Chart
XRP Price Holds Support as Capitulation Hints Rebound
On-chain analysis indicates that the resistance in the $1.76 and $1.80 range is minimal. A total of around 1.85 billion XRP was accumulated in this range. This amount totals almost $2.83 billion. However, the current price remains above the $1.27 support level.
If the $1.27 support fails, the uptrend assumption will be incorrect. The XRP price could drop to $1.11 if it breaks through the support level for a bear market. The sideways action could continue in the coming days amid current global uncertainty. March could be a risk and opportunity for XRP.
However, in an X post, analyst Chart Nerd highlighted that the price of XRP remains above a multi-year ascending trendline. This trendline has been a support level for XRP since 2018. According to historical analysis, two curve retests took place before entering a strong breakout phase.
XRP could be entering a support phase before entering a new breakout phase. The analysis of past curve expansions suggests that the full cycle breakout could be around $27.6. CoinGape had reported earlier this week that XRP was entering phase 4 of a long-term cycle, with the $21.5 level in focus.
The current Net Unrealized Profit and Loss chart for XRP indicates that the cryptocurrency is in a capitulation phase. The current holders of XRP are experiencing unrealized losses. This phase usually occurs in the last stage of a downtrend.
Historically, the capitulation phase for XRP took almost a month. The current capitulation phase for XRP started at the beginning of February. This phase could end in the first week of March.
Source: Glassnode
XRP Selling Pressure as Seasonality Signals Shift
The total crypto market capitalization fell 0.72% to $2.24 trillion. As reported by CoinGape, the crypto market crashes after news emerges of US and Israeli missile strikes in Iran. The development triggered global uncertainty and led to an immediate sell-off across the market.
However, the Spent Output Profit Ratio verifies that most coins are being sold at a loss. This metric rose above the 1 level for a brief period in mid-February, indicating that coins were being sold at a profit. However, it has since decreased below the 1 level, indicating that the selling continues at a loss.
The SOPR near the level of 1 is important because, if it increases, it will indicate that coins are being sold at a profit, marking a point in the XRP price recovery process. This has always been the case in the past, marking the beginning of the recovery process.
Source: Glassnode
Seasonality data indicates that March has, over the past 12 years, offered an average return of 18% for the XRP price. It is the best month in the first quarter, but the escalating tensions between the US and Israel could impact the market.
