XRP continued to trade under significant pressure in early 2026. The decline was extended from January into February as the cryptocurrency struggled to break through major resistance levels. The macro conditions are weak, and rising geopolitical risks further pressured the market.
As of writing, XRP is trading at $1.34. The cryptocurrency declined by 1.93% over the last day. The trading volume declined by 31.6% to $2.64 billion, according to CoinMarketCap data. The market showed weak momentum as buyers remained cautious.
Source: CoinMarketCap
XRP Shows Signs of a Possible Reversal
Analyst BitGuru highlighted that XRP continued to follow the downward trend after a series of consolidation phases. The price is supported by a strong support zone at the lowest end of the range.
A potential reversal is possible if buyers defend this support zone. The move towards the range of $1.80 to $2.20 may occur rapidly if strength returns.
Source: X
CryptoWZRD, another analyst, mentioned that a dragonfly doji is spotted on the daily chart of XRP. The XRP respected the $1.3000 price as a support level.
If the price is able to break past the level of $1.3820 resistance, the price is likely to increase further. The analyst further noted that a potential breakout could be hindered by geopolitical conditions.
Source: X
Capitulation Signals Late Bear Phase for XRP
On-chain data shows that XRP is still in a period of capitulation based on the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss metric. The majority of the holders are still holding on to unrealized losses.
Capitulation is a feature of the later stages of a bear market rather than the early stages. Analysts noted that the prior capitulation period for XRP lasted around one month.
Source: Glassnode
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The latest capitulation period started in early February. It is expected that the period would come to an end in the first week of March if past trends are considered. This would lead to reduced selling pressure as the period of panic selling would come to an end.
Seasonality data has shown strong historical results for the month of March. The token has shown an average return of 18% during the month in the last 12 years.
Source: CryptoRank
Geopolitics and Market Volatility Weigh on XRP Outlook
It is considered the best month of the first quarter. However, analysts have emphasized the fact that seasonality data cannot guarantee any increase. Other external factors are responsible for the overall trend.
The geopolitical risks between the United States, Iran, and Israel might affect the overall risk appetite of investors. Global instability might affect the seasonality of the market.
On-chain data shows that there was not much resistance until the range of $1.76 to $1.80. Approximately 1.85 billion XRP, which is around $2.83 billion, was accumulated within this range. The investors might sell this amount to break even and create short-term resistance.
Source: Glassnode
A break below $1.27 would test the bullish case. If this happens, the token might fall towards $1.11. It is also possible for a coin to consolidate if the overall market conditions remain volatile worldwide. March is a month of risks and opportunities for the token’s next direction.
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