XRP Base Case Price if Tokenized RWA Hits $200T as Predicted by Bitwise CIO

XRP could benefit tremendously as Bitwise’s Matt Hougan predicts that the tokenization market could grow to $200 trillion.

For context, Matt Hougan, who serves as Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, recently said the real-world asset (RWA) tokenization market could expand from $26 billion today to $200 trillion, arguing that traditional finance is already moving toward this expansion.

If this projection plays out and the XRP Ledger maintains its current 1.75% share of the tokenized market, it could host around $3.5 trillion in assets. Interestingly, valuation models suggest the XRP price could reach between $245 and $315 in this case.

Key Points

• Matt Hougan projected that tokenized RWAs could surge from $26 billion to $200 trillion, citing massive traditional markets such as $110 trillion in stocks and $140 trillion in bonds.
• He argued that tokenization could grow 10,000x, citing optimistic forecasts from the BlackRock CEO and SEC Chair.
• The XRPL currently holds $455 million, or 1.75%, of the $26 billion tokenized RWA market.
• If the global tokenization market reaches $200 trillion and XRPL keeps its share, it could manage about $3.5 trillion in assets.
• Google Gemini estimated XRP could trade between $245 and $315 in a bullish case, assuming liquidity requirements of roughly 10% to 15% of on-chain asset value.

Bitwise CIO: RWA Tokenization Market Could Hit $200T

Hougan made the recent prediction during a conversation on the Milk Road podcast with host LG Doucet. Doucet brought up a point from Hougan’s memo, in which the CIO insisted that the current tokenization market sits below its potential. Doucet asked Hougan to expand on his position.

In response, the Bitwise CIO said people often struggle to understand just how big these numbers are. He explained that while tokenized assets sit at around $20 billion, traditional markets are much bigger.

According to him, the global market hosts $110 trillion in stocks, $140 trillion in bonds, $250 trillion in real estate, and $30 trillion in ETFs. In his memo, he argued that tokenization could grow by 10,000x and still have room to expand. 

He pointed out that Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has said every asset will eventually be tokenized. He also mentioned Paul Atkins, chair of the U.S. SEC, who has made similar comments. According to Hougan, major Wall Street firms are already hiring people to work on tokenization. This confirms that traditional finance has begun showing interest.

XRPL’s Current Position and the $3.5 Trillion Scenario

If the tokenization market reaches $200 trillion, the XRP Ledger could benefit from this growth. Notably, developers built the XRPL with tokenized assets in mind, and the ecosystem has continued to roll out updates that could support institutional adoption. These updates include permissioned DEX and permissioned domains.

Right now, the total distributed tokenized real-world assets stand at $26 billion. Of this amount, the XRPL holds $455 million, which equals a 1.75% share of the market. If the ledger simply keeps that 1.75% share in a $200 trillion market, it will host about $3.5 trillion in tokenized assets. 

However, while most XRP community members insist that such growth would massively impact the XRP price, the extent of this impact remains uncertain. As a result, we asked Google Gemini to run a utility-based analysis with the current figures.

Google Gemini’s View on Utility and Liquidity

Responding, Google Gemini looked at the utility and how much liquidity the network would need. It focused on the link between on-chain value under management and the liquidity required to support that value smoothly.

Gemini pointed out that the XRPL currently boasts $455 million in RWA, while the XRP price stands at $1.35. Notably, this translates to a ratio of roughly $337 million in RWA for every $1 of XRP price. It then set a target of $3.5 trillion in RWA, based on the ledger keeping its 1.75% share of a $200 trillion market.

To move from $455 million to $3.5 trillion, RWA volume would need to grow by about 7,692x. Gemini noted that the price does not usually grow at the same rate as volume because networks become more efficient over time. However, in a strong institutional setting, rising demand for XRP as collateral or a reserve asset could tighten supply and push prices higher.

A Hypothetical Range of $245 to $315

Gemini then drew attention to what it called a liquidity buffer model. In this model, XRP acts as a bridge asset and a form of collateral. As such, $3.5 trillion in tokenized assets would require deep liquidity so users could trade, rebalance, and pay fees without causing sharp price swings.

In a slower-growth case, where the price rises at the square root of utility growth to reflect high efficiency, Gemini estimated XRP could reach about $118. However, in a more bullish case, where tokenized assets are actively traded, used as loan collateral, and settled across borders, the network would need stronger liquidity.

Gemini said healthy markets usually keep a 10% to 15% liquidity-to-asset ratio, which would mean $350 billion to $525 billion in liquidity to support $3.5 trillion in assets. Based on this, it projected a hypothetical XRP price between $245 and $315 per coin.