Crypto analyst Rob Cunningham has used AI to calculate how high the XRP price could be if the XRP ETFs eventually launch. Based on the forecast, the altcoin could rally to as high as $50 solely based on inflows into these funds.
How High The XRP Price Could Rise If XRP ETFs Are Approved
In an X post, Rob predicted that the XRP price could rally to $50 in the extreme stress case based on the inflows into the XRP ETFs. He also mentioned that a conservative target would be between $8 and $12 within 12 months, while an “aggressive but plausible” target would be between $20 and $30.
He revealed that these targets were based on ChatGPT’s forecast of how high the XRP price could rise solely on $17 billion in new ETF purchase demand over the next 12 months. The analyst broke down the framework with which this calculation was made. First, he noted that the float available is 5 billion XRP while the inflow assumption is $17 billion over 12 months.
Furthermore, the starting XRP price is $3, and the total float market value is $15 billion. Based on this, Rob remarked that the new demand from the ETFs will exceed the entire float’s value in one year. He further explained that if a buyer commits $17 billion (the XRP ETFs in this case) to buying XRP at $3, then they could purchase 5.7 billion coins. Meanwhile, the float is capped at 5 billion, with the shortage triggering a repricing.
The analyst added that the price will continue to rise until the available float satisfies the $17 billion demand. This is what led to the conservative target of $8 to the extreme stress case of $50 for the XRP price. Rob stated that ETFs don’t just absorb liquidity but that they institutionalize demand.
With $17 billion committed and such a thin float, the analyst believes that researchers should view a double-digit XRP price (between $10 and $30) as a realistic equilibrium target. Rob added that there is further upside risk if retail and crypto treasuries refuse to sell.
Another Parabolic Rally When FOMO Sets In
Rob also provided a second scenario, in which XRP records a larger demand as FOMO sets in. He believes this FOMO will come from mainstream banks, RIAs, institutions, and retain investors as the XRP ETFs push the XRP price higher. He noted that the capital base will be larger than the $17 billion that ETFs are projected to bring when the broader financial system joins in.
These financial institutions hold and manage trillions of dollars in assets. As such, Rob predicts that even 0.5% of allocation from these firms into XRP will dwarf the XRP ETF inflows. He added that $700 billion could flow into the altcoin from these institutions, which is way above the float of 5 billion coins. In line with this, the analyst asserted that $8 to $30 is likely for the XRP price without FOMO, while broad FOMO could lead to a rally to as high as $150. Lastly, he remarked that a systemic allocation could lead to a rally to as high as $500.
Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
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