Bitcoin has the potential to rise to $750,000 by the end of 2026, according to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX. Hayes thinks that increasing geopolitical tensions worldwide, especially in the Middle East, could lead to economic conditions conducive to a crypto boom.
In a recent interview and Substack post, on March 2, 2026, Hayes said that large-scale conflicts have a major impact on the finances of governments. When there is a sharp increase in government spending on the military, economic pressures are likely to build.
In this regard, the Federal Reserve has usually responded to these situations by cutting interest rates. Hayes predicts that the value of Bitcoin may fluctuate between $500,000 and $750,000 by the end of 2026.
Hayes explains that once the Fed begins cutting borrowing costs or increasing the money supply, risk assets like Bitcoin may rise quickly. Hayes explains that the major level to watch will come right after monetary easing begins.
He also suggested that deeper U.S. involvement in Iran could raise the chances of rate reductions. Referring to Donald Trump, Hayes said extended overseas commitments would add to fiscal burdens. As government costs increase, policymakers may feel pressure to lower rates and inject more liquidity into the financial system.
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Hayes Sees Bitcoin Breakout
Hayes cited examples to support his claim. For example, during the 1990 Gulf War, the Federal Open Market Committee pointed to the uncertainty caused by the Middle East conflict. As a result, the Fed lowered its interest rates.
Similarly, the Fed responded to the September 11 attacks in 2001 by lowering its interest rates by 50 basis points with the approval of then-Chairman Greenspan.
Hayes thinks that this process, where governments spend heavily on war and then loosen monetary policy, has been the cause of rising asset prices.
Although at the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $67,251, far from the $126,000 that was reached in October, Hayes believes that the easing of monetary policy will cause a strong rally in the years to come.
Source: CoinMarketCap
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