With the Bitcoin dominance reaching a crucial level, market veteran Michaël van de Poppe believes a breakdown soon could lead to the altcoin season.
The much-anticipated altcoin season has yet to unfold despite months of speculation. Bitcoin continues to maintain its upper hand over altcoins, with its dominance chart showing an upward trend. Although the dominance occasionally dips, it keeps regaining strength.
Bitcoin Dominance Hits a Tipping Point
However, well-known market strategist Michaël van de Poppe suggests that the Bitcoin dominance might be close to a major turning point, and this could open the door to the next major altcoin rally.
In his latest analysis, Van de Poppe explained that Bitcoin dominance is still trending upward but appears to be reaching a point where a reversal could soon occur.
He compared the current trend to what happened in Q4 2019, highlighting similarities. According to him, a key signal to watch is the 20-month moving average (MA). He noted that a confirmed break below this support could mark the beginning of a new phase for altcoins, describing it as “party time.”
Data from his accompanying chart indicates that Bitcoin dominance currently stands at 60.64%, and has tested the 20-month MA multiple times in recent months. Importantly, the moving average itself sits at 59.29%, a level that Bitcoin dominance briefly fell below in September before bouncing back.
This repeated interaction with the MA shows a market that is testing its limits, similar to what occurred in the previous cycle before the trend reversal.
Historical Precedence
Specifically, Van de Poppe referenced Q4 2019, when the Bitcoin dominance had surged above the 20-month MA. After peaking at 73.02% in September 2019, the dominance began a gradual drop, retesting the moving average by February 2020.
Although it recovered temporarily, the structure eventually gave way by July 2020, leading to a sustained decline. The resistance around the MA kept Bitcoin’s dominance suppressed throughout the next year, and by December 2021, it had plunged to 39.63%.
This sharp decline coincided with the altcoin season of the previous market cycle, when altcoins outperformed Bitcoin. Van de Poppe believes a similar pattern may be forming now, suggesting that the next phase could again favor altcoins if dominance convincingly drops below the moving average.
Other Analysts Agree
Another market analyst, Steve from Crypto Crew University, also believes this, recently highlighting similarities between the current setup and historical altcoin seasons.
Altseason déjà vu? 👀
2017 ✅
2021 ✅
2026 ❓#Bitcoin dominance is pressing against the same resistance that triggered both prior alt runs.
History doesn’t repeat… but it sure rhymes. 🎯#Altseason might just be fashionably late this time. 🎩
What do you think?👇#Altcoins… pic.twitter.com/iYSUdkZXex— Crypto Crew University (@CryptoCrewU) November 4, 2025
He noted that the Bitcoin dominance chart now faces the same type of resistance that preceded the major altcoin rallies of 2017 and 2021. Steve suggested that the pattern could repeat, possibly around 2026, implying that an altcoin rally might only be delayed rather than absent.
The analytical platform Bitcoinsensus also identified signs that show the possibility of a coming altcoin surge. The firm highlighted that Bitcoin dominance recently faced another rejection from macro resistance, showing a monthly decline that mirrors the one during the 2021 breakdown.
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