Bitcoin-Gold 6-Month Correlation Drops to 4-Year Low of -0.7: What’s Next for BTC?

The price correlation between Bitcoin and gold over the past six months has dropped to -0.7, as BTC continues to underperform gold.

Since September 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) has collapsed by more than 41% amid a consistent months-long downtrend that gained momentum in October 2025.

However, within this period, gold (XAU) has increased 48% to new heights. This divergence in performance has pushed the Bitcoin-Gold correlation ratio over the past six months to a 4-year low of -0.7, as Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative faces pressure.

Key Points

• Bitcoin, often touted as digital gold, has not fared well amid macroeconomic uncertainties, down 41% since September 2025.
• Within the same period, gold has maintained its reputation as a hedge against unfavorable macro conditions, having increased 48% to new heights.
• Due to this divergence in performance, the Bitcoin-Gold correlation over the past six months has dropped to -0.7, a new 4-year low.
• Chart data shows that Bitcoin has collapsed 61% against gold within the period under consideration, with the BTC/XAU pair hitting a low of 12.31, last seen in April 2023.
• The BTC/XAU pair has now seen 14 months of declines, with the RSI dropping to its lowest levels in history across multiple timeframes.

Bitcoin Slips into Its “Not Digital Gold” Phase

Notably, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju recently called attention to the divergence in performance between gold, the world’s largest asset by market cap, and Bitcoin, the largest crypto asset by market cap. 

Ki called attention to the fact that the divergence in Bitcoin’s and gold’s performances over the past six months has led to the Bitcoin-Gold 180-day correlation dropping to a low of -0.7. For context, the last time the correlation ratio dropped to such lows was December 2021, over four years ago.

The Bitcoin-Gold 180-day correlation metric assesses Bitcoin’s performance in relation to gold over the past six months. While 0 means Bitcoin and gold have performed similarly within the 180 days, readings above 0 mean BTC has outperformed gold, and those below 0 indicate that gold has outperformed BTC.

Commenting on this, Ki stressed that Bitcoin had slipped into its “not digital gold” period, alluding to the fact that with its underperformance in the face of unfavorable macroeconomic situations such as President Donald Trump’s tariff wars, tensions in the Middle East, and other geopolitical factors, Bitcoin currently cannot boast of the “digital gold” tag.

Interestingly, despite the current turbulent position, Emirates NBD, the second-largest bank in the UAE, has insisted that Bitcoin is “digital gold.” Notably, Emirates NBD’s Chief Investment Officer, Maurice Gravier, recently suggested that the bank was considering adding BTC to its portfolio. This comes as prices continue to slip.

Bitcoin Slips 41% While Gold Gains

For context, Bitcoin began October 2025 on a bullish note, initially soaring to a new all-time high of above $126,000 by Oct. 6, 2025.

However, its fortunes quickly turned sour days later, with the Oct. 10 market-wide crash contributing to the steep declines. Since then, BTC has been on a downward slope, having collapsed 50% from the October 2025 all-time high and 41% over the past six months.

Meanwhile, gold has been on an uninterrupted upward trend within the same period. Specifically, over the past six months, gold has gained 48%, currently trading for $5,135 per ounce. As a result of the divergence in performance, the BTC/Gold ratio has dropped 60.82% from 31.6 to 12.38, marking a new 3-year low.

BTC Oversold Against Gold

Interestingly, market veteran Michaël van de Poppe took to X today to point out a silver lining with the current situation. He called the BTC/XAU pair the most valuable chart in the world at present, stressing that while the pair’s full-blown bear markets typically last 14 months, BTC has been in a downtrend against gold for 14 months now. 

He further stressed that the relative strength index (RSI) for the BTC/XAU pair has dropped to its most oversold levels across multiple timeframes, including 3-day, weekly, two-week, and monthly. Van de Poppe’s analysis suggests that BTC may be in a position where it could stage a breakout against gold. However, when this breakout will occur remains uncertain.