Bitcoin and Ethereum entered 2026 under significant pressure, posting one of their weakest first quarters in years.
Fresh data from CoinGlass shows both assets sharply underperformed their historical averages. The figures underscore elevated volatility and cautious investor sentiment across the crypto market.
According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin declined 23.21% so far in the first quarter of 2026, its fourth-worst Q1 performance since 2013. The result stands in stark contrast to Bitcoin’s historical average first-quarter gain of 45.90%, highlighting the scale of the divergence from typical seasonal strength.
Ethereum experienced an even steeper pullback. ETH fell 33.73% in Q1 2026, marking its third-weakest first quarter since 2016. Historically, Ethereum has generated an average Q1 return of 66.45%, with a median increase of 4.37%. The latest figures, therefore, signal a pronounced departure from past performance trends.
Key Points
- Bitcoin dropped 23.21% in Q1 2026, its fourth-worst first quarter since 2013.
- Ethereum fell 32.17% in Q1 2026, marking its third-weakest Q1 since 2016.
- Both assets sharply underperformed their historical average first-quarter returns.
- Prices remain deeply below 2025 all-time highs, with Bitcoin down 47.7% and Ethereum down about 61%.
- Prominent investors and firms continue to project substantially higher long-term price targets despite near-term weakness.
Historical Context Puts 2026 in Perspective
To better understand the downturn, past market cycles offer useful comparisons. CoinGlass data shows Bitcoin’s most severe first-quarter decline occurred in 2018, when it plunged 49.7%.
The next largest Q1 losses were recorded in 2014 and 2015, with declines of 37.42% and 24.14%, respectively. Against this backdrop, 2026 ranks among the more difficult openings, though not the worst on record.
Ethereum’s history tells a similar story. Its steepest Q1 fall came in 2018, when it dropped 46.61%. The second-largest first-quarter loss occurred more recently, in 2025, with a 45.41% decline. In that context, the current quarter joins a relatively short list of historically weak starts for the asset.
However, quarterly performance tells only part of the story. The broader downturn traces back to late 2025, when both cryptocurrencies peaked before entering sustained corrections.
Sharp Retreat From 2025 Record Highs
Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,180 on October 6, 2025. Since then, the asset has trended lower in a prolonged pullback. It now trades at $65,945, approximately 47.7% below its peak.
Ethereum topped out earlier, hitting $4,946 on August 24, 2025. The subsequent correction has been even more severe. With prices hovering near $1,941, ETH remains roughly 61% below its record high.
Together, these retracements illustrate the depth of the current market adjustment. The decline has unfolded amid broader macroeconomic uncertainty and regulatory concerns, reinforcing persistent investor caution.
Analysts Maintain Bullish Long-Term Outlook
Despite near-term weakness, several high-profile investors continue to express confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.
During his remarks at the World Liberty Forum in Mar-a-Lago, Eric Trump suggested that Bitcoin could one day reach $1 million per coin, presenting it as a potentially lucrative alternative to traditional investment vehicles.
Entrepreneur Andrew Parish echoed that sentiment, recently describing prices below $70,000 as a strategic accumulation zone. He projected Bitcoin could surpass $500,000 within three years, signaling conviction in a medium-term rebound.
Looking further out, investor Ric Edelman forecast that Bitcoin may reach $500,000 by 2030. His outlook assumes a 1% allocation from global investment portfolios, suggesting institutional adoption could drive future gains.
Even more ambitious projections have emerged. EMJ Capital CEO Eric Jackson suggested Bitcoin could climb to $50 million by 2041, framing the asset as a potential cornerstone of the future financial system.
Meanwhile, brokerage firm Bernstein maintained its $150,000 price target for Bitcoin by the end of 2026, reinforcing expectations of recovery within the current market cycle.
Market Balancing Pressure and Optimism
Taken together, the first quarter of 2026 stands out as one of the weaker openings for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. The declines reflect ongoing correction from 2025 highs and a climate of increased uncertainty.
Yet long-term projections from prominent market participants remain firmly bullish. As 2026 unfolds, the central question is whether the current weakness represents a temporary cyclical retracement — or signals a more structural shift in digital asset markets.
For now, the crypto sector sits at a crossroads: weighed down by recent losses, but underpinned by enduring long-term optimism.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.