Bitcoin continued its recovery early this week, with prices gaining strength on the back of renewed optimism for a potential US–China trade deal. The rebound followed weeks of heavy selling, and on-chain data now suggests that bearish sentiment may have reached exhaustion. Glassnode noted that selling pressure appears to have peaked, opening the door for a possible shift in market momentum.
BTC has been consolidating near the upper end of its range, hovering close to its all-time high a sign that long-term holders are standing firm. The lack of follow-through selling below key support levels indicates that bulls are in no rush to exit their positions, betting instead on another leg higher. Still, traders should remain cautious as rallies near all-time highs often draw profit-taking. Galaxy Digital’s head of research, Alex Thorn, emphasized that while the broader bull structure remains intact, a decisive break below $100,000 could put that outlook at risk.
In regulatory developments, President Donald Trump has nominated Michael Selig, a senior SEC official, to chair the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), with an explicit focus on advancing pro-crypto policies. The move, which still requires Senate confirmation, aligns with the administration’s stated goal of positioning the US as a “crypto capital.” However, the nomination comes amid an ongoing government shutdown that has stalled key legislative progress, including the review of several pending digital asset market bills.
Meanwhile, Binance’s former CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao received a presidential pardon after serving a four-month sentence for AML violations a move reportedly fueled by months of lobbying in Washington. According to Politico, Binance and its associates spent over $450,000 lobbying for executive relief in a single month, part of a broader campaign that underscores the industry’s growing influence in US political circles.
Elsewhere, traditional finance continues to edge closer to blockchain integration. Citi announced a partnership with Coinbase to pilot stablecoin-based payment solutions, forecasting a $4 trillion stablecoin market by 2030. The collaboration aims to make institutional payments faster, programmable, and available around the clock, reinforcing Wall Street’s accelerating adoption of crypto infrastructure.
Trader’s Outlook
Bitcoin’s bounce from recent lows shows buyers are still defending the $102,000–$107,000 zone, but the market needs a decisive break above $117,000 to confirm bullish continuation. A sustained move higher could retest $121,000 and possibly challenge the all-time high near $126,000. On the flip side, failure to clear resistance may see BTC consolidate or retest lower supports before the next major move.
ETH continues to follow Bitcoin’s lead, holding steady within its channel structure. Traders are watching for a clean breakout above key moving averages to confirm renewed momentum. Until then, the broader crypto market looks to be in recovery mode — cautious but constructive as buyers slowly regain control.
Bitcoin pushed above its key moving averages on Sunday, signaling that buyers are taking charge once again. The 20-day EMA at $112,337 has started to slope upward, and the RSI sits in positive territory — both signs that momentum is shifting in favor of the bulls. There’s some resistance around $118,000, but if BTC clears that zone with conviction, a retest of the all-time high near $126,199 looks increasingly likely.
For now, bears are on the clock. They’ll need to drag the price back below the 20-day EMA quickly to regain control. A close under the $107,000 support could flip sentiment and trigger heavier selling pressure, opening the door for a deeper correction. Until that happens, dips are likely to attract buyers looking to ride the next potential breakout.
Ether also joined the recovery, closing above the 20-day EMA at $4,047 — a sign that selling pressure is easing. The next key challenge for the bulls is the 50-day SMA near $4,234, followed by the resistance line of the descending channel pattern. If buyers manage to punch through, ETH could rally toward $4,957 and possibly extend the move to $5,500, marking the next phase of the uptrend. On the downside, bears will try to force the price back below the channel’s support. A break below that level could drag ETH toward $3,350.
Trader’s Outlook
BTC looks set to test the $118,000 resistance in the short term. A clean breakout could pave the way for a run at the all-time high, while failure to hold above the 20-day EMA may invite profit-taking and short-term pullbacks toward $107,000.
ETH’s structure is improving, with momentum slowly shifting to the upside. A breakout above the 50-day SMA could trigger a move toward $5,000, but if bulls fail to maintain the current levels, a dip back to $3,700–$3,350 remains possible.
Overall, both majors are showing early signs of bullish strength, but traders should stay alert for volatility as the market tests key resistance levels.
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