Key Takeaways
Is Bitcoin’s bottom in?
Risk appetite among Bitcoin investors remain muted despite improving on-chain strength.
What’s driving sentiment now?
Whale accumulation and resilient short-term holders are building the case for a potential sustained rally.
Looks like Bitcoin [BTC] is sticking to its seasonal tailwind.
Despite the October flush, BTC is still up 1.23% and sits just 7% shy from reclaiming all its post-crash losses. That means previously underwater wallets are back into profit, with 91% of the BTC supply now in the green.
On top of that, BTC has flipped above the short-term holder (STH, >155 days) cost basis at $113k for the first time since the crash, reinforcing buyer confidence among those most prone to capitulation during drawdowns.
Source: Glassnode
In short, Bitcoin looks poised to trigger FOMO if this momentum holds.
Supporting that view, whale activity has picked up noticeably. On the 26th of October, a single whale accumulated 2,772 BTC (roughly $309 million worth) pushing its estimated cost basis to around $111k.
Together, these dynamics (weak hands realizing gains, STHs showing resilience and whales buying the dip) are forming the ideal conditions for a “sustained” move. The question is, has greed returned to the market?
Cautious sentiment lingers among Bitcoin investors
From a broader view, it looks like the market’s in a holding pattern.
Despite its underlying strength, Bitcoin remains nearly 10% below its $126k all-time high. This indicates that investors are treading carefully, opting for measured positioning rather than aggressive dip-buying.
Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index reflects this cautious tone. Since the crash, the index has climbed just two points, keeping the market in a neutral zone and suggesting that risk appetite is still muted among bulls.
Source: CoinMarketCap
In this context, calling a Bitcoin bottom might still be premature.
Still, with whales accumulating and on-chain metrics stabilizing, the groundwork for BTC’s next move may already be in place. If momentum picks up, caution could quickly turn into conviction for a sustained run.
On the flip side, that same caution could just as easily shift into capitulation. So for now, Bitcoin sits at a key inflection point, making it a “high-risk” trade for those looking to front-run the next move.