Bitcoin could deliver an average annual return of 28% over the next decade, dramatically outpacing stocks and bonds, according to Bitwise’s CIO, Matt Hougan.
In a recent post on X, Bitwise highlighted Hougan’s projection of a 28% compound annual growth rate for Bitcoin over 10 years. That figure stands in sharp contrast to typical Wall Street expectations of roughly 5% annual equity returns and about 4% for bonds.
Against this backdrop, Hougan’s forecast frames Bitcoin as a potential long-term portfolio outlier — one that could meaningfully influence asset allocation strategies. However, his bullish outlook comes amid fragile market sentiment.
Key Points
- Bitwise CIO forecasts Bitcoin could see a 28% CAGR over the next 10 years, far exceeding typical equity and bond returns.
- Hougan describes the current crypto environment as a classic bear market, similar to the 2018 and 2022 crypto winters.
- Institutional investors continue to accumulate Bitcoin and Ethereum, indicating confidence despite market downturns.
- Structural growth in DeFi, stablecoins, and tokenization points to deeper integration between crypto and traditional finance.
- Hougan expects a gradual market recovery starting in 2026, with fundamentals strengthening before valuations follow.
Market Conditions Mirror Past Crypto Winters
Despite his constructive long-term thesis, Hougan recently characterized the current crypto environment as a classic bear phase. Specifically, he likened the current environment to the crypto winters of 2018 and 2022, when prices fell sharply across the sector.
Speaking to The Block, Hougan said crypto still appears to follow a four-year cycle. Although past catalysts, including Bitcoin halving events and major industry failures, may now carry less weight, the broader pattern seems intact.
He argued that cycles persist because investors expect them. As traders position themselves around these timelines, their behavior reinforces the cycle itself.
This cyclical pressure is visible across the market. Institutional investors continued to accumulate Bitcoin and Ethereum through late 2025. Meanwhile, many retail participants experienced steep losses. Numerous altcoins have declined 70% or more from previous highs.
At the same time, extreme fear readings in market sentiment indicators support Hougan’s argument that the downturn began earlier than many expected. Even so, he maintains that weakening prices do not necessarily signal deteriorating fundamentals.
Institutional Activity and Structural Growth
Hougan points to expanding institutional engagement as a primary indicator of structural progress. For instance, he highlights increased activity in decentralized finance and tokenization initiatives, as well as major digital asset efforts from BlackRock and growing tokenization strategies at Apollo Global Management.
Additionally, he cited continued growth in stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets. Together, these developments suggest deeper integration between traditional finance and crypto infrastructure.
Looking ahead, Hougan expects exchange-traded funds to expand gradually beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. However, he believes institutional capital will likely remain concentrated in leading assets or broad index-style products.
He also addressed concerns surrounding corporate Bitcoin holders such as MicroStrategy. According to Hougan, widespread forced selling would require a prolonged 80% price decline. Without such a scenario, he suggested companies may continue amassing assets, though perhaps at a slower pace.
Taken together, these dynamics form what he sees as the structural groundwork for the next phase of the market cycle.
What Could Happen Next?
Turning to the near-term outlook, Hougan describes 2026 as a potential bottoming year, with recovery more likely to resemble a gradual U-shape than a sharp rebound.
Even if prices remain subdued, he expects steady progress in stablecoin adoption, decentralized finance innovation, and regulatory development. Those trends, he believes, will continue moving forward regardless of short-term volatility.
Under his base scenario, 2027 could mark a period when market prices begin to align more closely with strengthening fundamentals. Still, Hougan cautions that comprehensive global regulatory clarity may take years to materialize.
Ultimately, he frames crypto’s trajectory as a 10- to 15-year structural transformation. From his perspective, the industry remains in its early stages. Over time, he expects fundamentals to advance first, with valuations following in a later expansion phase.
As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at $68,122, up 1.5% over the past 24 hours.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.