The Commodity Futures Trading Commission [CFTC] has moved to defend federal oversight of prediction markets. It filed a friend-of-the-court brief as state-level challenges intensify and tying the effort to what its chair described as a broader reset in U.S. crypto policy.
In a video statement and follow-up posts on Tuesday, 17 February, CFTC Chair Mike Selig said the agency acted to protect its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets, which the commission has regulated for more than two decades as derivatives contracts.
The amicus brief supports the CFTC’s position that such markets fall squarely under federal commodities law, rather than state gambling statutes.
Federal authority versus state challenges
Selig said prediction markets have faced an “onslaught of state-led litigation” over the past year, prompting the commission to intervene.
He argued that Congress granted the CFTC comprehensive authority over contracts based on commodities—a definition he said is intentionally broad and encompasses modern prediction markets.
“Prediction markets aren’t new,” Selig said, adding that they serve legitimate economic purposes by allowing participants to hedge risks such as weather and energy price volatility, while also providing information signals around real-world events.
“To those who seek to challenge our authority in this space, we will see you in court,”
he added.
Implications for crypto-adjacent markets
While the CFTC did not single out specific platforms in its public remarks, the dispute has implications for crypto-native prediction markets that use blockchain infrastructure and tokenized settlement.
Many such platforms operate at the intersection of derivatives regulation and state betting laws, making the question of federal preemption central to their ability to operate nationally.
By asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction, the CFTC is seeking to limit the risk of a fragmented, state-by-state regulatory patchwork. An outcome that market participants have warned could constrain liquidity and access.
Linking prediction markets to crypto policy
Selig explicitly connected the agency’s stance to a broader shift in U.S. crypto policy. He said the administration has “reversed course on crypto” to ensure the country remains “the crypto capital of the world.”
The remarks position the CFTC as a defender of market structure and federal clarity at a time when other crypto-related rules remain in flux.
The commission’s move does not endorse any particular market or product. Instead, it frames prediction markets as a long-standing part of U.S. derivatives oversight and signals a willingness to litigate to preserve that framework.
What comes next
The amicus filing sets the stage for further legal battles over jurisdiction, with outcomes that could shape how prediction markets are regulated in the United States.
For now, the CFTC views prediction markets as federal derivatives products and intends to defend that position in court.
Final Summary
- The CFTC is asserting federal authority over prediction markets amid rising state challenges, elevating the issue to a legal confrontation.
- By linking the move to a broader crypto policy reset, the agency signals a pro-clarity stance for crypto-adjacent market infrastructure.