Coinbase Only 22% To Beat Its Earnings As Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP Drag Down COIN

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Polymarket traders are giving Coinbase Global, Inc. (NASDAQ:COIN) just a 22% chance of beating Wall Street estimates ahead of its fourth-quarter earnings report today.

The Polymarket contract tracking whether COIN will exceed the Street consensus of $0.61 in GAAP EPS has attracted over $50,000 in volume.

The 78% odds of a miss reflect mounting skepticism as Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) plunged nearly 50% from its October peak.

The carnage extends across crypto markets, with Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) down 33% this year and XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) shedding 25%.

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Analysts expect Coinbase to report $1.84 billion in revenue, down from $2.27 billion a year earlier.

COIN shares are down 37% this year, closing Wednesday at $152.16.

Wall Street projects transaction revenue of just $1.03 billion, representing a 33.6% year-over-year decline.

Coinbase’s core profit engine depends on trading fees, and with Bitcoin and Ethereum volumes collapsing, that revenue stream appears to be drying up fast.

Crypto bettors expect CEO Brian Armstrong to emphasize subscription and services revenue, which grew 9% quarter-over-quarter to $698 million in Q3.

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Polymarket traders are watching for buzzwords around regulatory clarity, stablecoin growth, and references to Bitcoin’s four-year cycle.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testified before Congress that the Treasury has no authority to stabilize crypto markets. The statement sent shockwaves through the industry and undermined hopes for government support.

VanEck’s head of digital asset research Matthew Sigel identified multiple pressures hammering Bitcoin:

• Futures open interest collapsed from $61 billion to $49 billion in a week as leverage unwound

• Miners sold Bitcoin to fund operations amid failed AI pivots

• Rising quantum computing fears spooked investors about potential encryption vulnerabilities

This has all occurred while stocks and precious metals hit all time highs, further undermining crypto’s claim as a safe haven asset.

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Coinbase reports after market close, with the stock trading at a P/E ratio of around 26 leaving little room for disappointment.

If the Polymarket odds prove accurate and Coinbase misses even the lowered bar of $0.61 in GAAP EPS, the possibility for further pain for the stock is high.

Coinbase has beaten estimates in seven of the last ten quarters.

But with crypto markets in freefall and retail traders capitulating, this quarter could mark a turning point for the exchange.

Image: Shutterstock

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