Key Takeaways
What levels define Dogecoin’s near-term outlook?
$0.22 acted as short-term support, but 12.78 billion DOGE accumulated at $0.20 makes it the critical level to watch.
What signals support a potential Q4 rally?
Strengthening MACD, stabilizing CMF, and the analyst’s halving-linked forecast suggest Dogecoin could rally later in 2025, following historical post-halving trends.
Dogecoin [DOGE], the biggest memecoin, was down about 12% in the past week but still managed to stay in the top 10 list among all cryptos.
The memecoin sector stayed in decline, even as several altcoins rallied in mid-July.
DOGE fell from $0.30 to $0.23 before stabilizing above $0.22 at press time, a former breakout zone.
However, according to analyst Ali Charts, the most important support zone was at $0.20. About 12.78 billion DOGE had been bought at the $0.20 level, with buying extending to the $0.27 level.
Indicators flash mixed signals
Dogecoin was slowly approaching this level, as the price was making lower highs and lows. The MACD was strengthening, indicating buyers were starting to kick in.
Source: TradingView
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) showed that capital was starting to flow from buyers, as the indicator was forming a potential double bottom. This was a sign that capital outflow was weakening, paving the way for inflows.
Yet, bearish pressure kept the $0.20 level within reach unless $0.22 held firmly. If support is sustained, DOGE could attempt another push toward $0.30.
Spot traders are still selling
The odds of the price falling to $0.20, the most important support level, increased as the structure was still bearish.
Additionally, traders were still offloading the holdings. It was evidenced as the Spot Taker Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) shifted to a seller-dominated stance, signaling that traders continued to offload holdings.
Source: CryptoQuant
This reinforced the risk of a drop to $0.20. Still, some analysts argued that the dip offered discounted entry ahead of potential Q4 upside.
Will DOGE rally in Q4?
On that note, EtherNasyonal predicted an upcoming Dogecoin rally on CoinMarketCap’s community section. The analyst reiterated that the third bull cycle for the memecoin was inevitable.
But will this bold prediction hold?
Looking at the chart, Dogecoin’s bullish cycles have followed Bitcoin halving years. The year 2025 is not an exception to this historic pattern of repetition. That said, DOGE could rally.
Source: EtherNasyonal/CoinMarketCap
Altogether, a drop to $0.20 could ignite the next rally. Even so, the recent altcoin recovery might delay upside momentum, with a possible breakout shifted toward mid- or late Q4.