Ethereum (ETH) has been trading around the $2,000 level as market participants gauge if the rebound has enough strength to sustain a rally. However, analysts stated that downside risks remain high unless Ethereum manages to post a strong bullish move above resistance.
At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $1,998.2, up 1.04% over the last 24 hours, with a trading volume of $28.59 billion and a market capitalization of $241.06 billion, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Ethereum Structure Signals Further Downside
On February 18, 2026, a crypto analyst, More Crypto Online, stated that unless Ethereum shows a clear five-wave upward impulse pattern or breaks above the weekend high with strong follow-through, the chances of another leg down remain high.
According to the Elliott Wave theory, a five-wave pattern usually indicates the start of a new trend, while a three-wave pattern often represents a corrective bounce.
The recovery from last week’s low seems corrective rather than indicative of a strong uptrend. According to More Crypto Online, this recovery doesn’t show the internal strength associated with an early third wave. Until further strength can be identified, risks of further volatility and downside remain.
In fact, from the chart, we can see that there is a significant level of price action in a specific Fibonacci cluster. While this can sometimes lead to a short-term bounce, this alone is not enough to signal a long-term low. Instead, this must be accompanied by a five-wave advance. Without this, we could potentially see a lower wave C.
In the aftermath of sharp liquidation, crypto assets often see sharp bounces, but the key to a reversal is not the speed but the structure. Until we see sustained turning, we look to the short-term wave patterns to see if the asset is producing an impulse move or simply trading in overlapping corrections.
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Ethereum Faces Weak Momentum Downside
The Ethereum chart for the week shows weakness. The RSI is at 32.11, which is near the oversold territory. The average RSI is at 40.38, which shows that the buying pressure is decreasing.
The ETH is trading below the moving average ribbon. The asset is trading below the following MAs: the 20-week SMA at $3,071, the 50-week MA at $3,039, and the 100-week MA at $3,048.
The MACD indicator also supports the negative forecast. The MACD line stands at -347.46, while the signal line stands at -186.54. The negative histogram at -160.91 indicates that the sellers control the momentum on higher time frames.
Overall, Ethereum is attempting to stabilize near a significant psychological level, although analysts believe a significant structural change is required before a stronger uptrend can be established. The market remains vulnerable to volatility and further selling pressure.
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