The latest story from Citrini Research, set as a June 2028 macro memo, considers the ways that AI might change corporate profitability, labor markets, and payment infrastructure.
Although it is a work of fiction, the story has been widely shared on X and serves as a good frame of reference for executives to think about how technology, economic, and digital asset systems might be radically altered.
AI-Driven Productivity and Market Reaction
The economy in Citrini’s 2028 vision has AI fulfilling its productivity promise, thus helping companies lower their staff while their profits increase. The equity markets advance at first with the S&P 500 “flirting with 8,000” and the Nasdaq “breaking above 30,000” as investors anticipate efficiency.
Nevertheless, the trend is reversed when layoffs result in a decrease in consumer spending, and companies respond by introducing even more AI devices to safeguard their profit margins.
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Labor Displacement
Within this narrative, the richest 10% of earners make up over half of consumer spending; meanwhile, roles such as product managers and analysts who previously spent $180,000 annually are substituted by software.
Productivity indicators are very high; however, service industries such as restaurants and the markets are shrinking. Housing becomes a major point of contention, as around $13 trillion of mortgage contracts are based on the assumption of steady employment. As the unemployment rate climbs to 10.2 %, mortgage defaults will go up, and stock markets could fall by 40-60 % from their high points.
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Stablecoin Settlement
The memo implies that these agents, indifferent to brand loyalty, will focus on latency and cost, and therefore transactions will be routed away from traditional card networks and their 23% interchange fees.
On the contrary, they may choose to make payment settlements in stablecoins on fast blockchains like Solana and Ethereum.
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