Here’s How High Cardano Must Rise to Overtake BNB

Amid renewed discussions about Cardano’s 2021 rally, during which it briefly flipped BNB, this analysis estimates how much ADA must rise to replicate that achievement today.

Despite approaching the $0.70 mark yesterday, Cardano has once again resumed its downward trajectory amid a broader market sell-off. At the current price of $0.64 per token, ADA is down 1.19% over the past 24 hours and 9.27% over the past seven days. 

Cardano’s negative performance aligns with the broader market downturn that has gripped the crypto sector this month. Established assets, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, have recorded notable losses during this period. 

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Growth Required for Cardano to Overtake BNB 

As the downtrend continues, community members have been recounting ADA’s incredible performance in 2021, especially how it became the third-biggest token after overtaking BNB. This happened in February and September 2021. In September 2021, ADA’s market cap climbed to nearly $90 billion while BNB stood at $84 billion at the time. 

It has been over four years since ADA achieved this feat, and several events have taken place. As of today, ADA currently ranks as the tenth-largest cryptocurrency globally, trading around $0.64 with a market capitalization of approximately $23.27 billion. 

In contrast, Binance Coin BNB holds the fourth position, trading at $1,068 and boasting a market cap of $148.77 billion. For Cardano to surpass BNB’s valuation, its market cap would need to reach at least $149 billion. This remarkable feat that would require a 540% rally. 

ADA Price If Cardano Market Cap Hits $149B 

Given Cardano’s circulating supply of roughly 35.9 billion tokens, one ADA will change hands at $4.15, marking a new all-time high (ATH). Notably, this estimate assumes that BNB remains stable at $148.77 billion, a scenario that is highly unlikely to happen. 

Nonetheless, several analyses have framed $4 as a realistic target for Cardano. Last year, crypto analyst Ali Martinez revealed that he planned to keep accumulating ADA during its decline, aiming to sell once the asset reached the $4–$6 range.

In August 2024, crypto YouTuber Max Maher forecasted that Cardano could soar 10x to $4.29 this cycle, highlighting growing community hype as a key driver of the potential rally. 

Earlier this year, top community figure Mintern predicted that ADA would clinch a new all-time high of $4 by the end of 2025.

With barely two months left before the year runs out, there is uncertainty about whether ADA will set a new all-time high at $4 or even overtake BNB to become the fourth-biggest token globally.