Bitcoin is entering a tense phase as large traders and long-term charts send mixed but heavy signals. Crypto analyst Ash Crypto reported that a whale who previously secured $22 million in profits has opened a fresh $66.16 million long position on Bitcoin using 3x leverage.
The trade faces liquidation at $43,785 if losses deepen. Meanwhile, Bitcoin, trading near $67,900, has fallen below key weekly moving averages, signaling the correction may continue.
Source: X
The $66.16 million long position is notable because of its size and timing. A leveraged position initiated during a correction is risky, particularly given that Bitcoin is currently well below its former highs of $100,000-$110,000.
With 3x leverage, the price changes are magnified. If the price drops to $43,785, the position will be closed. Although there was a profit of $22 million prior to this, the trade is made during a time of poor momentum.
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RSI and MACD Signal Downside Toward $58K Support
As per TradingView analysis, on the weekly chart, Bitcoin broke below the 20-week moving average and the 50-week moving average. More significantly, it broke below the 100-week simple moving average at around $87,000. This indicates a loss of upside strength and a transition to distribution.
In the recent past, the market has been creating a lower high around $100,000-$110,000 before reversing to the downside. It has also failed to retest the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level in the upper $90,000s.
Source: TradingView
Momentum indicators are bearish. The Relative Strength Index is in the lower 30s and falling, but not yet seriously oversold.
The MACD is bearish, with increasing red bars indicating growing bearish pressure. The next significant long-term level of support is near the 200-week moving average at $58,000.
Bear Market at 33% as Bitcoin Follows 4-Year Halving Cycle
Analyst Rekt Capital points out that the current bear market phase is at 33% of completion. Bitcoin is still following the four-year cycle associated with halving events in 2016, 2020, and 2024 on the monthly chart.
Each cycle has a parabolic phase followed by a downward correction channel. However, the fall appears to be less dramatic than in previous cycles, indicating a mature market. Currently, estimates indicate a possible correction in the mid-$40,000s.
Source: X
In previous cycles, prices retraced considerably before forming higher macro lows. Although there is weakness, the overall trend still indicates higher highs and higher lows over a period of years.
Also Read: Bitcoin (BTC) Eyes Bullish March Rebound Above $69K Support