How Far Lower Could XRP Go Before Finding a Bottom? Analysis Shares Pointers

XRP has fallen deeper into the ongoing downtrend after a short-lived bounce, and new analysis now looks at how much further it could drop before finding a solid floor. 

For context, the XRP price briefly climbed back to $1.42 on Monday but lost strength again, stretching a decline that has now lasted close to five months. The emerging data now reveals the important levels that could decide whether XRP steadies itself or slides further.

Key Points

• XRP rebounded from $1.3929 to $1.42 on Monday but quickly lost momentum, extending a downtrend that has lasted nearly five months.
• The XRPBTC pair fell 7% from 0.00002204 to 0.00002041 between Feb. 17 and Feb. 23 before finding support and recovering.
• After hitting $1.42, XRP faced rejection at this level, eventually breaking down below the $1.38 to $1.49 range and confirming the bearish trend.
• XRP also lost the support between$1.385 and $1.375, which increased the likelihood of a move toward the major support at $1.24.
• On higher timeframes, strong support at $1.24 could lead to a recovery toward $1.64 or above, while a weak reaction may push XRP down to $1.

A Brief XRP Bounce That Didn’t Last

Market analyst Cilinix called attention to the latest development in a video commentary. Specifically, on Monday, XRP moved up from $1.39 early in the day to $1.42 by noon, only to give back those gains soon after. Despite this, Cilinix noted that XRP has held up fairly well compared to Bitcoin over the past few days. 

According to him, data from the XRPBTC pair showed signs of relative strength for XRP. From Tuesday, Feb. 17, to Monday, Feb. 23, XRPBTC slipped from 0.00002204 to 0.00002041, a drop of about 7%. 

However, the pair found solid support at 0.00002041 BTC and bounced from there. This recovery aligned with XRP’s move back toward $1.42, suggesting the token matched or even slightly outperformed Bitcoin during this brief period.

Nonetheless, Cilinix clarified that this does not mean XRP has turned bullish. Notably, heavy short positions built up from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, pushing funding rates much lower than usual. This extreme positioning helped trigger the quick rebound, but it did not fix the bigger trend.

Weak Structure Keeps Pressure on the XRP Price

Even with the bounce, the overall chart setup still looks shaky. Between Saturday, Feb. 15, and Sunday, Feb. 22, XRP traded inside a channel. The value area high sat around $1.49, the value area low near $1.38, and the Point of Control rested between $1.42 and $1.44.

On Sunday, XRP broke below the channel. When it recovered back toward $1.42 on Monday, it ran straight into resistance at the Point of Control, which also aligned with the 7-day rolling VWAP. 

According to Cilinix, this reaction made sense from a technical point of view. Meanwhile, the bigger problem came when XRP failed to hold support between $1.385 and $1.375. Once the price slipped below that zone, the chances of another move down increased.

At the time of the analysis, XRP traded around $1.325. Cilinix said this level does not look strong enough to mark the end of the selling pressure. Instead, he highlighted $1.24 as a more important support area, noting a “single print” there that could attract buyers.

What Could Happen Next for XRP?

On the 4-hour chart, Cilinix shared a possible path down for XRP. Specifically, he expects XRP to rise toward $1.38, dip back to $1.32, climb to $1.35, and then fall into the $1.25 to $1.24 area. According to him, this zone could present a real chance for a local bottom to form.

However, everything depends on how the price reacts at $1.24. A good bounce could open the door for a steadier recovery. On the other hand, a weak response could drag XRP down to equal lows or even toward $1. He also mentioned that if buyers defend that area well, XRP could form a higher low on larger time frames.

Bigger Picture Scenarios

Looking at the 1-day chart, Cilinix shared two possible outcomes. In the more positive case, XRP drops to $1.24, finds strong support, rebounds to $1.35, pulls back to $1.28, and builds enough strength to push toward $1.64 or higher. Meanwhile, in the weaker scenario, XRP falls to $1.24, struggles to bounce, rises only to the monthly value area low around $1.32, and then slides toward $1.

For now, he remains slightly bearish in the short term, with $1.25 to $1.24 as the next key downside target. He also stressed that broader market conditions matter. Volatility remains high, and financial markets still face uncertainty. If the volatility index drops and overall fundamentals improve, XRP could reclaim $1.35, which stands out as a major resistance level, and recover faster.