Market data indicates that XRP has left breadcrumbs or macro formations to ascertain its position in every cycle since 2013.
The crypto market has taken a heavy hit this year, shedding $662 billion in value, and XRP has not escaped the pressure. Despite the declining prices, market data shows the current downturn follows a bigger and familiar pattern, and XRP could recover promptly.
Notably, XRP has consistently left “breadcrumbs” that investors could leverage across each cycle. These breadcrumbs refer to repeatable macro formations that signal where the price stands in its cycle.
Key Points
- While XRP has continued to collapse over the past five months, market data shows it has persistently left “breadcrumbs” since 2013.
- These breadcrumbs refer to macro formations or clues across multiple cycles that indicate where the price stands in each cycle.
- The macro formations have ranged from sharp vertical upsurges, like in 2017, to long compressions like in 2018 to 2020.
- Currently, XRP trades within the descending flag or falling channel formation, which indicates that prices could recover promptly.
The Ignition Coil
Market watcher EGRAG Crypto highlighted these breadcrumbs in a recent analysis. Notably, he called XRP’s early phase “The Ignition Coil,” which covers the period from 2013 to 2016.
During these years, the price printed tight, overlapping monthly candles while volatility slowly compressed. XRP briefly climbed to $0.03 in December 2014, but the move did not hold. Instead, the price corrected and formed a descending triangle that stretched for nearly three years. By March 2017, XRP had dropped to $0.005.
EGRAG said the key breadcrumb here was the descending triangle. According to him, every major XRP rally begins with long compression. Without that coiled pressure building over time, the explosive move that follows simply does not happen.
The Vertical Ignition
Once XRP broke above the compression in 2017, it entered what EGRAG names “The Vertical Ignition.” In this phase, the price action moved quickly. Bullish monthly candles stacked with very little overlap, indicating strong expansion. Notably, XRP surged from $0.005 in March 2017 to $0.4536 by May 2017.
For EGRAG, the breadcrumb in this phase is the indication that when XRP breaks out of compression, it moves fast and aggressively. The expansion does not play out slowly, but happens with force.
Controlled Decompression
After the 2017 surge, XRP moved into the “Controlled Decompression,” spanning 2018 to 2020. Here, the price met resistance at the May 2017 high of $0.4536 and then pulled back slightly. From June 2017 to November 2017, XRP consolidated between $0.1242 and $0.2159, forming an orderly channel.
EGRAG believes the breadcrumb here is the “The Flag.” Notably, instead of collapsing, XRP bled within the structure. Selling looked systematic rather than emotional, and the price never fully retraced the prior impulse.
The Vertical 1-Month Candle
The next formation after the decompression is the “Vertical Expansion/Ignition Candle.” During this formation, XRP broke out of the decompression by December 2017 and printed a massive monthly candle, rallying 740% in that single month. The move extended into January 2018, when XRP reached $3.5.
EGRAG noted that the breadcrumb tied to this candle shows that XRP often tops or enters a range around such extreme vertical moves. To him, this kind of candle tends to appear near the beginning of the end of a major price uptrend.
The Long Bear Market
After peaking at $3.5 in January 2018, XRP entered the “Long Bear Market,” which EGRAG also calls the “Descending Compression Channel (Macro Cooldown).” From January 2018 to June 2020, the price moved inside a long, downward-sloping channel with overlapping monthly bodies and a slow grind lower. By June 2020, XRP had fallen to $0.1751.
EGRAG sees the breadcrumb here in the structure itself. Instead of seeing a sudden collapse, XRP underwent a time-based correction, referring to a controlled decompression after expansion. He noted that every time XRP completes this kind of descending compression channel, it follows with another Vertical Expansion candle.
The Echo Run
EGRAG calls the next rally “The Echo Run.” After recovering from July 2020, XRP broke above the descending triangle and climbed to $1.96 by April 2021. Although this move was less vertical than the 2017 surge, it still marked an impulsive run.
According to him, the breadcrumb here confirms the higher-order trend. He stressed that a second expansion leg validates the broader direction and does not happen by accident.
The Structural Reset
Meanwhile, from the April 2021 high of $1.96, XRP dropped and entered “The Structural Reset.” Between 2021 and 2023, the price drifted lower within a falling channel. Notably, by February 2023, XRP had dropped to $0.3761.
Here, the breadcrumb shows that XRP favors time-based corrections instead of sharp price destruction. The price moved lower in an organized Descending Channel while macro support continued to hold.
The MACRO Range
Following the reset, XRP did not collapse. Instead, it entered the “The MACRO Range,” also known as “The Acceptance Range.” From February 2023 to October 2024, XRP’s price traded sideways between $0.39 and $0.80, forming a horizontal channel with flat.
EGRAG noted that the breadcrumb in this phase relates to digestion and accumulation. Specifically, XRP held its structure and moved sideways rather than down, preparing for a potential expansion into a higher range.
The Breadcrumb Zone
In November 2024, XRP broke out of the horizontal channel and surged to $3.4 by January 2025 following the U.S. presidential election. It later pulled back to $2 and consolidated between $2 and $3. EGRAG calls this stage “The Breadcrumb Zone.”
He said the breadcrumb here lies in the strong breakout body followed by smaller corrective candles, with the price holding above its prior base. He noted that this structure has appeared before every major continuation.
Following Breadcrumbs
The current formation, which began turning bearish in October 2025, carries the name “Following Breadcrumbs,” which EGRAG also calls the “Descending Flag/Falling Channel (Bullish Continuation).” In this phase, XRP dropped from $2.84 at the start of October 2025 to $1.41, marking a decline of more than 50%.
Despite this, EGRAG believes the structure remains intact. He called it a downward-sloping, controlled pullback with overlapping bodies and no panic selling after an impulsive move higher.
He insisted that this pattern does not indicate a top, but represents a cooldown inside a broader uptrend. As long as the range holds, he maintains that XRP’s macro rhythm, involving the phases: Ignite, Range, Flag, Expand, remains intact.
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