A widely shared chart this week argued that record profits in gold are about to rotate into Bitcoin, repeating a pattern seen in prior cycles. Veteran futures trader Peter Brandt responded laconically yet eloquently with a single thumbs-down emoji on X.
Brandt, who has traded commodities for more than five decades, has maintained a cautious stance on Bitcoin throughout early 2026. With BTC trading near $66,500, down from January highs around $92,000, his view is rooted less in narrative and more in structure.
Beyond thumbs-down: Peter Brandt’s technical case against “great rotation”
Previously Brandt has identified a broadening top formation, a large flag pattern and what he describes as a completed bear channel. In this framework, downside risk remains active unless price reclaims the $93,000 area and a potential bottoming window extends into October 2026, with a range between $50,000 and $62,000.
The gold-to-Bitcoin rotation thesis rests on historical sequencing. In past cycles, gold has rallied first during macro stress, then consolidated as capital rotated into higher-beta assets such as BTC. Gold is currently trading near record highs around $4,983 per ounce.
Proponents argue that even a small percentage reallocation from gold’s multitrillion-dollar market could materially impact Bitcoin’s price due to its smaller capitalization.
Brandt’s skepticism appears directed at the certainty embedded in such projections. He has repeatedly criticized consensus-driven chart interpretations and pattern labeling in crypto markets. In his view, Bitcoin does not follow scripted rotations and often invalidates widely accepted setups.
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Macro variables complicate the picture as ETF flows, Federal Reserve policy expectations and global debt refinancing cycles continue to influence capital allocation. Gold has benefited from safe-haven demand and anti-fiat positioning. Whether that liquidity transitions into Bitcoin depends on risk appetite rebuilding, not on historical symmetry alone.