During a recent podcast appearance, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor dismissed the rising concerns over quantum computing as merely the latest iteration of “alarmist narratives.” He has noted that there is no consensus regarding the threat.
Saylor has argued that the “quantum threat” can be viewed as a recycled psychological tactic. He has compared it to previous fears, including the infamous block size disputes or China’s mining ban.
“They will continue. Quantum will be one,” Saylor said. “It used to be, you know, there’s a debate, well, you know, the Chinese will they’ll control all the mining… Then it’s like the Chinese control the mining equipment. Oh, there might be a back door in the mining equipment. Oh, no, the Chinese ban Bitcoin mining.”
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Saylor noted that each of these narratives collapsed, and critics simply pivoted to the next available fear.
“I would say at this point the reason we’re talking about quantum is that all of the other risks did not materialize,” he explained. “I would say this entire quantum fear is just the latest quantum fun because there’s nothing else to talk about.”
The business of alarmism
Saylor argued that these narratives are often manufactured by what he calls “ambitious opportunists” or “idealistic intellectuals” who use fear to glean engagement, capital, or power
He warned that 99 out of 100 of these narratives are essentially business models for the people pushing them. “If I wasn’t preaching it, how am I getting rich?” he asked.
Waiting for 10 years
Saylor believes that it would be prudent to wait roughly 10 years before there is a network consensus regarding potential upgrades.
“The nodes will be upgraded, the hardware will be upgraded, the wallets will be upgraded, the exchanges will be upgraded. How will they upgrade? Well, wait 10 years. There will be a global consensus about the best way to deal with it.”