Over the weekend, a group of traders on Polymarket profited from the U.S. and Iran bomb attack. On-chain data shows that six newly created accounts made close to $1 million by betting that the United States would strike Iran by February 28. The bets were placed just hours before there were reports of the first explosion.
The trading activity drew a lot of attention from many in the crypto space, especially blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps, which identified unusual trading patterns tied to the accounts.
All the wallets were created in February, and some of the purchases made for as little as 11 cents paid out at 100 cents when the contract was resolved. In prediction markets, that kind of price movement can translate into gains of about 800% or more.
Social media users accused the traders of acting on leaked government information, with some claiming that someone close to U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth may have tipped them off. One viral post alleged that an “incognito” wallet extracted $500,000 in profit in a single day.
Also Read: Two Israelis Accused of Using Secret War Intelligence to Profit From Polymarket Bets
Growing Scrutiny Around Polymarket Prediction Markets
Over time, Polymarket has emerged as one of the largest platforms for betting on geopolitical events. It allows users to trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes, including wars, elections, and even political leadership changes.
For the February 28th strike, the contracts attracted around $89. 652 million in trading volume, making it the most active date-based contract on the platform. A similar contract of this kind that predicted strikes on January 31st drew about $42 million, while a February 27 contract saw more than $25 million in trades.
Previous Criminal Charges Against Polymarket Insiders
Earlier in February, Israeli authorities filed the first criminal charges linking prediction-market bets to classified military information. A military reservist and a civilian were indicted for using secret details to place bets on Israeli security operations, causing them to earn around $150,000.
The latest Iran-related trades add to the growing debate over whether prediction markets can remain largely unregulated while handling contracts tied to war and national security.
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