Top Analyst Flags 75% Downside for Shiba Inu Amid Bearish Signals

Shiba Inu (SHIB) may be entering a decisive phase, according to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, who warned that the memecoin could fall as much as 75% if bearish momentum persists.

His caution comes at a time when SHIB is already grappling with sustained price weakness and fragile investor sentiment.

Key Points

• Ali Martinez warns SHIB could drop up to 75% if a critical support level breaks.
• The token is testing long-standing support near $0.00000510, held for 56 months.
• A breakdown could send SHIB toward $0.00000138, with interim support at $0.00000304.
• SHIB is already down 22% over the past month, reflecting sustained bearish momentum.
• Shibarium suffered a $2.5 million hack in September 2025, denting investor confidence.

Technical Outlook Points to Potential Breakdown

Martinez based his assessment on a weekly chart pattern that signals continued downside risk. Specifically, he emphasized a long-standing support level near $0.00000510, a threshold that has reportedly held for 56 months.

A decisive break below that level, he suggested, could open the door to further losses. In that case, the next support sits around $0.00000304, while a broader breakdown could drag SHIB as low as $0.00000138. Altogether, such a move would represent a decline of roughly 75% from current prices.

At present, SHIB trades at $0.00000554, down 8.5% over the past week and 22% over the last month. Meanwhile, the token’s market capitalization stands at approximately $3.26 billion, ranking it 27th among global cryptocurrencies. If selling pressure continues, continued weakness could push it outside the top 30, potentially compounding negative sentiment.

Ecosystem Challenges Add Pressure

Beyond price action, the broader Shiba Inu ecosystem has faced setbacks that may be weighing on confidence.

In September 2025, Shibarium, the project’s Layer-2 blockchain, suffered a significant hack, with approximately $4 million worth of tokens siphoned from the network. Consequently, the breach intensified scrutiny around security and undermined investor trust.

Since then, Kaal Dhairya and the core development team have rolled out technical improvements to restore confidence. Even so, progress has been gradual, and some community members have voiced frustration over the pace of recovery.

At the same time, attention has turned to Shytoshi Kusama. Reports indicate that the Shiba Inu ambassador is pursuing an independent AI-focused initiative.

Kusama addressed the matter on X, reaffirming his long-term focus on SHIB. He characterized his AI initiative as complementary to the project’s broader vision rather than a departure from it.

Exchange Flows Reveal Mixed Signals

Alongside technical and leadership concerns, on-chain data presents a more nuanced picture of market sentiment.

According to CryptoQuant, SHIB reserves on exchanges increased from 80.93 trillion tokens on February 27 to 81.06 trillion on February 28 — a shift that typically signals rising sell-side pressure.

However, the trend quickly reversed. Large holders, or whales, withdrew substantial amounts of SHIB shortly thereafter. Consequently, exchange reserves fell to 80.90 trillion and later declined further to 80.87 trillion at press time.

This back-and-forth movement underscores the market’s internal tension. Initial inflows suggested potential selling, but subsequent withdrawals point to dip buying by major investors.

Taken together, these developments place Shiba Inu at a crossroads. Technical indicators warn of significant downside risk, while whale accumulation hints at underlying support.

In the weeks ahead, traders will be watching closely to see whether key support levels hold, and whether SHIB can stabilize, or if a deeper correction ultimately unfolds.