Why the AI Sees XRP at $3.50 Before Bitcoin Recovers

As institutions keep buying XRP ETFs through a 60% price drawdown, it signals conviction—showing ETF demand is absorbing supply and creating a bid under XRP that Bitcoin doesn’t currently have.

Ripple spent over $2.4 billion on acquisitions in 2025, assembling an institutional finance stack that didn’t exist a year ago. Hidden Road—a $1.25 billion deal—gives Ripple access to $3 trillion in annual clearing volume through Ripple Prime. The $1 billion GTreasury acquisition brought 40 years of enterprise treasury expertise and over 1,000 corporate clients managing $12.5 trillion in payment volumes. Rail, acquired for $200 million, handles over 10% of the B2B stablecoin payments market.

In late January 2026, Ripple launched Ripple Treasury, which enables 3-5 second cross-border settlements using RLUSD instead of the typical 3-5 day wire transfers. RLUSD’s market cap now exceeds $1.3 billion, expanding on-chain usage and providing institutional-grade collateral. Network activity reflects that growth, with exchange balances falling to a seven-year low of 1.7 billion XRP as tokens move into long-term custody.

The SEC case closed in August 2025, confirming XRP’s non-security status on secondary markets. The regulatory clarity unlocked institutional capital that had stayed on the sidelines for years.

Bitcoin doesn’t have that advantage. Questions around ETF custody concentration and potential policy shifts still linger. XRP trades without that overhang, which is one reason ETF inflows have been stickier despite the broader selloff.

ChatGPT’s forecast assumes markets stay calm, but February already showed how quickly that can change. On February 5, the XRP price dropped 15% while Bitcoin fell only 8%. XRP is roughly 1.8x more volatile, so when panic hits, it falls harder and faster. Any XRP prediction built on stability breaks down when the stability disappears..

The same logic applies to ETF flows. Bitcoin ETFs saw over $2 billion in outflows in January and February 2026 after the initial hype faded. XRP’s $1.37 billion in inflows looks stronger, but if weekly flows slip below $10 million, that floor could crack. A delayed Fed cut, an exchange failure, or a regulatory surprise could trigger the kind of sentiment collapse that sends XRP back toward $0.80.

The next few months will test ChatGPT’s forecast. For the AI model’s prediction to become reality, ETF inflows need to stay above $10 million per week to maintain buying pressure, and exchange balances falling below 1.7 billion XRP would confirm supply is tightening. RLUSD also crossing $1.5 billion market cap would show the ecosystem is gaining real traction, and not just mere speculation.

ChatGPT’s outlook rests on XRP moving before Bitcoin does. If ETF inflows hold and Ripple’s infrastructure keeps expanding while Bitcoin waits on the Fed, $3.50 is realistic. But if the next selloff drags XRP down just as hard as Bitcoin, the prediction fails.

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