Wikipedia co-founder Jimmy Wales has come up a grim long-term forecast for Bitcoin, predicting that while the cryptocurrency will not “go to zero,” it is destined to fade into obscurity with a price tag of under $10,000 by 2050.
Wales argued that Bitcoin’s structural robustness ensures its survival, but its lack of utility will ultimately relegate it to the status of a niche hobbyist collectible.
“People who think that Bitcoin is going to zero are likely mistaken,” Wales wrote. “The design is robust enough that it will continue to exist in perpetuity, barring some currently unforeseen breakdown in cryptography or a surprise 51% attack.”
However, Wales believes this survival will be a hollow victory. He characterized the asset as a “complete failure” as both a currency and a store of value, predicting that it will fail to become the “dominant money of the future.”
“What it can do, though, is decline to a price consistent with hobbyist tinkering,” Wales noted. “So I’d suggest a 2050 price target of under $10,000 in today’s dollars. Possibly much lower.”
No escape hatch
Wales also pushed back against the popular narrative that Bitcoin will serve as a critical “escape hatch” for citizens living under increasingly authoritarian regimes.
When a user suggested that restrictions on digital rights would drive adoption, Wales remained skeptical.
“Hard to use, volatile, not accepted as currency anywhere,” Wales countered. “It’s fine for hobbyists/enthusiasts but I think gold/silver/jewelry/real estate/fine art/etc will remain dominant as safe haven store of value.”
He was equally dismissive of the idea that institutional products like ETFs and futures would prop up the price indefinitely.
Wales described traditional finance (TradFi) intermediaries as “famously ruthless and not ideological,” suggesting that if public interest wanes, they will happily let the products trade lower and lower.