Crypto market participants are bracing for crypto options expiry, US PCE inflation, Q4 GDP data, and escalating US-Iran war tensions. However, signs of a potential recovery have emerged amid massive short liquidations and on-chain flashing exhaustion of sellers. Will Bitcoin, ETH, XRP, and Solana rebound to their max pain price today?
Bitcoin, ETH, XRP, and Solana Jump to Their Max Pain Price?
Almost 30K Bitcoin options with a notional value of $2.06 billion are set to expire today on Deribit derivatives crypto exchange. The put-call ratio of 0.57 indicates bullish positioning among traders and TradFi institutions.
Call volume is also higher than put volume in the last 24 hours. The put/call ratio is 0.90, indicating buy-the-dip sentiment for a potential rebound in Bitcoin price ahead of the US PCE inflation data.
Bitcoin max pain price is $70,000, with calls double the puts at the strike price. Deribit data shows the probability of expiring above $67,500 strike price is more than 97%.
Notably, Bitcoin price has surged more than 2% $67,800 in the last few hours and is trying to reclaim above the 200-hourly moving average at $67,957. If successful, it could set a rebound towards the max pain price of $70,000.
Meanwhile, ETH options worth $414 million in notional value will expire today, with a put-call ratio of 0.72. The Ethereum max pain price is at $2,025, above the current market price of $1,962.
Also, a rebound ETH 25-delta skew indicates a potential price increase, with a slight rise in implied volatility. Buy-the-dip sentiment could increase if upcoming macro data support further recovery.
The total ETH futures open interest across all crypto derivatives exchanges increased 1.50% to $24.27 billion in the past 24 hours. Significant buying was also recorded in the few hours, with almost 4% jump in open interest on CME.
Moreover, XRP options worth $5.16 million in notional value expire today, with a bearish put-call ratio of 1.33. The max pain price is at $1.40, below the current market price of $1.42.
Options traders remain bearish on XRP, but a broader crypto market sentiment uptick could boost XRP towards $1.50. However, a selloff or profit booking could send XRP price to $1.38 max pain.
In Solana case, the max pain price is at $84, with traders eyeing a massive recovery. Solana price has jumped more than 4% in the last 24 hours, currently trading at $83.50. Trading volume remains low ahead of crypto options expiry.
Spot Solana ETF saw $6 million in inflows on Thursday, with Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) recording $5.5 million in inflows. As CoinGape reported recently, Morgan Stanley reveals massive holdings in Bitwise Solana Staking ETF and Solana Co. The financial giant joined other TradFi as the RWA tokenized on Solana hits $1.66 billion.
Crypto Market Records Massive Short Liquidations
CoinGlass data revealed massive liquidation of short positions in 24 hours. More than 82K traders were liquidated in the last 24 hours, with the largest single short liquidation order of ETH-USDT worth $2.92 million on Binance.
In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin saw $30 million in short position liquidations, surging significantly in the last few hours. ETH, ENSO, SOL, AZTEC, XRP, and MYX are among the most liquidated crypto over the past 12 hours.
On-chain platform Santiment reported that wallets with 10-10K Bitcoin have dumped -0.8% of their holdings since October. Whereas wallets with less than 0.01 Bitcoin have accumulated an additional 2.5%.
Analysts such as Ted Pillows and Ali Martinez pointed next key levels to watch as Bitcoin price bounces back from the $65,000-$66,000 zone. Ali Martinez predicts $68,900 as the next resistance. Pillows claims BTC will likely push towards the $73,000-$74,000 zone as long as this support zone holds.
