XLM’s 24-hour trading volume is hovering at the 57 million dollar level, below the average of recent weeks; this low participation indicates weak selling pressure in the downtrend price movement and can signal hidden accumulation. Market sentiment shows that the volume deficiency is limiting sales, pointing to a possible base formation.
Volume Profile and Market Participation
XLM’s current volume profile reveals quite low market participation. The 24-hour trading volume at 57 million dollars is running about 40% below the 7-day average; this shows reduced overall market interest and retail investors waiting on the sidelines. Although the price has declined by 2.66% in the downtrend, this weakness in volume emphasizes that sales are not organized and lack broad participation. In volume profile analysis, volume nodes (POC – Point of Control) in the region where the price remains below EMA20 (0.16 dollars) are concentrated at low levels; this indicates a volume base forming around the 0.1549 support level.
From an educational perspective, a healthy downtrend is supported by high volume – for example, sharp sell waves should see volume exceeding 100 million dollars. Here, however, volume remains dry, meaning market participants do not appear convinced to sell. This situation reflects a pattern known as a ‘dry volume-less decline,’ which is often a harbinger of trend changes. With Supertrend giving a bearish signal against the 0.19 resistance, no volume increase is expected; on the contrary, low volume suggests buyers may step in during support tests.
Accumulation or Distribution?
Accumulation Signals
Accumulation signals are present: While the price has fallen 2.66% from 0.16 dollars, volume remaining below average shows limited seller strength. RSI at 41.73 is neutral while the MACD histogram shows positive divergence – momentum is rising as price falls, a classic accumulation divergence. In multi-timeframe (MTF) volume context on the 1D timeframe, 3 support levels (0.1549, 0.1473, 0.1362) are backed by strong volume nodes; these are potential areas where institutions are accumulating at low levels.
In the volume profile, Value Area Low (VAL) stabilizes around 0.1549 after low-volume declines; this implies big players are forming a base. Over the last 3 days, the volume of upward candles is higher than downward ones – a resilient base signal against weak sales.
Distribution Risks
Distribution risks are low but should not be ignored: On the 1W timeframe, 5 resistance levels (e.g., 0.2374) are supported by volume, meaning there’s a strong seller wall for any upside breakout. If volume spikes suddenly and price fails to break 0.1713, fakeout accumulation risk increases. The current 57M volume is insufficient for distribution; real distribution requires 150M+ volume.
Price-Volume Confluence
Price-volume confluence is partially disrupted: In the downtrend with price below EMA20, volume provides no confirmation. A healthy bearish move comes with high-volume red candles, but here volume is dry – this divergence exaggerates price weakness. The positive divergence between MACD’s bullish histogram and price decline confirms hidden buying activity in volume.
Educational note: For volume confirmation, upward candles should be high volume, downward candles low volume (bullish confirmation). The opposite is observed in XLM: Volume is low on down days, proving weak selling pressure. Volume increase at 0.1549 support is critical for confirmation; a break activates bearish targets (0.0916).
Institutional Activity
Institutional (big player) activities are hidden in the asymmetry of the volume profile: Volume clusters at support levels on 1D/3D timeframes (3S/3R on 1D) resemble whale accumulation patterns. Although 5R dominates on 1W, low overall volume signals a waiting mode rather than institutional selling. No sudden volume spikes, meaning no panic selling or aggressive buying – a healthy consolidation.
Typical institutional pattern: High-volume rallies after low-volume shakeouts. XLM around 0.16 looks like a shakeout; on the XLM Spot Analysis and XLM Futures Analysis pages, futures open interest is low, meaning limited leveraged selling pressure.
Bitcoin Correlation
Bitcoin has declined 2.90% from 65,465 dollars in a downtrend; Supertrend gives a bearish signal and supports (64,329, 62,459) are fragile. XLM correlates 0.85% with BTC – BTC declines crush altcoins, especially as dominance rises. If BTC tests below 64K, XLM tests 0.1549; recovery at resistances (66,257) opens bullish 0.2098 target for XLM. Monitor BTC dominance: If it rises, altcoin volume dries up.
Volume-Based Outlook
Volume-based outlook is cautiously optimistic: Low-volume decline is forming an accumulation base, but BTC risk is high. Short-term: If 0.1549 support holds with volume, bullish reversal to 0.2098; a break leads to 0.0916 bearish. Watch: Confirmation if volume exceeds 80M+. Overall outlook: Wait for increased participation, low volume limits sales – potential base.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.