XRP Could Break Below $1 or Rise Above ATH Depending on How It Reacts to This Key Level

The XRP price could either break below $1 or rise above its current all-time high, depending on how it reacts to a key level.

XRP has stayed under strong bearish pressure, extending a downtrend that began in October 2025. So far this year, XRP has fallen 26%, as it trades for $1.35, putting it on course for its most bearish performance since the 2022 bear market. 

Market data shows that XRP’s next major move depends largely on how the price reacts at $1.55, with downside risk toward $0.85 if rejection occurs, or upside potential toward $2.2 and beyond if bulls breach the level. The outcome at these levels could determine the direction of XRP’s multi-month trend.

Key Points

• XRP has declined 26% in 2025 and currently trades at $1.35 after dropping 63% from its $3.66 peak in July 2025, based on market data.
• Price remains inside a descending channel that began influencing structure after the July 2025 rally from $1.9 to $3.66.
• XRP’s next major direction would largely depend on how it reacts to the pivotal $1.55 level.
• If XRP fails to break above $1.55, market data suggests it could retest $1.26, fall toward $1, and potentially sweep the $0.95-$0.85 macro support zone.
• A successful break above $1.55 would weaken the bearish outlook, while a weekly close above $2.20 would invalidate the descending structure.
• Whether XRP takes the bearish path or the bullish path, data shows the ultimate target still rests around $7.

The Descending Channel Structure

This is according to an analysis from market watcher EGRAG Crypto. According to him, amid the ongoing downtrend, XRP still trades inside a white descending channel on the weekly timeframe.

Data from his chart shows that since the channel started forming years back, XRP traded below it. Even the explosive rally to $3.31 in January 2018 failed to push XRP into the structure. Likewise, the surge to $3.4 in January 2025 did not move the asset into the channel.

However, after recovering from $1.9 in June 2025, XRP rallied aggressively and reached a peak of $3.66 in July 2025. This rally marked the first time XRP entered the descending channel. 

Since topping at $3.66, XRP has corrected by 63% and now changes hands at $1.35. Despite this steep decline, the price remains inside the descending channel, meaning the pace of the drop has not exceeded the slope of the channel itself. As a result, the broader structure remains intact.

EGRAG said the current momentum was corrective, not impulsive. He believes every move from XRP within the channel represents distribution, not a breakout. Within this structure, the upper trendline acts as resistance while the lower trendline provides support. Only a decisive break above the upper trendline would invalidate the bearish structure and confirm a bullish trend change.

XRP Bearish Scenario

EGRAG then shared two possible paths that XRP could take from here. He argued that XRP’s next major move depends on how the price reacts around the critical $1.55 level. This level will determine whether XRP continues sliding toward sub-$1 territory or flips into a bullish expansion that could eventually lead to a new all-time high.

The first path is a bearish red trajectory that could play out if XRP fails to reclaim $1.55. From the current $1.35 level, he expects XRP to attempt a move toward $1.55. If sellers reject the price below $1.55, this rejection could activate the bearish pathway.

Under this scenario, XRP would first revisit the $1.26 lows before bouncing back to test $1.55. If price faces rejection at $1.55, it could then slide toward $1. After a relief bounce that again stalls at $1.55, XRP could enter a second corrective phase. The second pullback would sweep the macro support zone between $0.95 and $0.85.

However, EGRAG does not see the move to $0.85 as a market collapse. Instead, he calls it a controlled higher-timeframe reset. He assigns a 55% to 65% probability that XRP will face rejection at $1.55 and follow this deeper pullback path.

XRP Bullish Scenario 

For the bullish path, EGRAG emphasized that a decisive break above $1.55 would weaken the red trajectory. If XRP rises to $1.55 and breaks through instead of facing rejection, this move would act as the first trigger against the bearish thesis.

He identified $2.20 as the major invalidation level. Specifically, a weekly close above $2.20 would push XRP above the descending channel, break the descending structure, invalidate the bear thesis, and activate a bullish continuation phase. Such a breakout would indicate a structural change.

EGRAG believes that once XRP clears $2.20, a push toward the $2.7 to $3.6 range could ensue. A sustained move through that zone could even open the path to a new all-time high. He estimates a 35% to 45% probability that XRP will push above $1.55 and initiate this early breakout scenario.

Whether XRP faces rejection at $1.55 and follows the bearish path or breaches $1.55 to follow the bullish path, EGRAG’s chart suggests the ultimate target lies above $7. Taking the bearish path would only make the journey to this target lengthier.