XRP Could Follow One of Three Paths from Here Based on the 44 EMA

Data analysis indicates that XRP could follow one of three possible paths from here, depending on how it interacts with the 44 EMA.

XRP has remained under pressure along with the wider crypto market, wiping out $136 billion in market value since its peak in July 2025. As the price trades at lower levels, the 44-month exponential moving average (EMA) has emerged as one of the most pivotal levels to watch.

Key Points

• XRP has erased $136 billion in value since July 2025, recently dropping to retest the 44 EMA around $1.12.
• Data indicates that XRP could take one of three paths from here, depending on how it interacts with the 44 EMA.
• A monthly close below the EMA could break structure and open the door to a decline toward the $0.65 to $0.85 range.
• Holding the 44 EMA could trigger a relief move toward $2.20, though this would likely act as a bull trap rather than a full breakout.
• A confirmed bullish continuation would require acceptance above $2.20 to $2.30, with $3.65 as the next major target.

A Critical Support Level

Market analyst EGRAG Crypto highlighted these levels in a recent analysis. He suggested that the 44 EMA was the most important level on the monthly chart right now. At the time of his analysis, the 44 EMA stood around $1.12, while XRP traded at $1.32. 

He explained that price is now testing this moving average, which has historically acted as a painful zone for the asset. For context, XRP’s drop to $1.11 on Feb. 6 marked a retest of the 44 EMA, followed by a rebound. While EGRAG said he still sees the bigger picture as bullish, he clarified that XRP is currently moving through a correction.

XRP Closing Below 44 EMA

With XRP still at risk of another retest of the 44 EMA, EGRAG shared that the price could follow one of three paths depending on how it interacts with the moving average. 

In the first scenario, if XRP closes a monthly candle below the 44 EMA at $1.12, the current structure would break. EGRAG warned that this kind of move could trigger a drop toward the $0.65 to $0.85 range. He called this zone a likely final capitulation area, where sellers could push the price down in a last wave of heavy selling.

According to him, losing the 44 EMA would show weakness and open the door to much lower levels. In this case, bears would stay firmly in control, and XRP could revisit prices far below where it trades today.

Holding Above the 44 EMA

Meanwhile, the second path involves XRP holding above the 44 EMA at $1.12. If the price stays above the EMA, a reaction move inside the broader channel structure could ensue. 

For context, XRP currently trades within a multi-year ascending channel. The token broke above the channel in November 2024 and stayed above it until January 2026. In January 2026, XRP dropped below $1.6 and fell back into the channel. 

If XRP now holds the 44 EMA, EGRAG believes the price could rebound toward the upper boundary of that channel, which lines up with the $2.2 level.

According to him, $2.2 remains the most logical relief target to reclaim, but he admitted that this would not indicate the start of a new bull run. The analyst confirmed that he would only see a run to $2.2 as a possible bull trap, not a true breakout.

XRP Pushing Above $2.3

In a third scenario, which would involve a real bullish continuation, XRP must move above the $2.20 to $2.30 range and hold there. Notably, $2.20 matches the upper trendline of the multi-year ascending channel, making it a major resistance point. Only after the price gains acceptance above this area would new all-time highs return to the discussion.

If the breakout happens, the analyst sets the next target at $3.65, which marks XRP’s previous all-time high. According to him, until the structure clearly confirms strength, the short-term view remains neutral to bearish. However, he maintains that the long-term outlook remains strong.