The XRP price has crashed 60% from $3.65 to $1.45, and the selling shows no sign of slowing. Retail traders are calling XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) oversold, but the on-chain data doesn’t support a bounce yet.
Three factors suggest more downside ahead: broken support turning into resistance, whale distribution accelerating, and macro conditions offering no relief. A test of the $1.25 support remains on the table, with $1.00 as the next floor if the selling pressure continues.
Reason 1: XRP Price Has Broken Key Support Levels
The XRP price chart has unraveled in stages, and each break has made the crash harder to dismiss as a routine pullback.
The fall through $2.50 in late January cracked a floor that had held for months and triggered more than $150 million in long liquidations. When $1.60 failed in early February, selling intensified alongside Bitcoin’s broader slide below $70,000. The breach of $1.40 on February 11 confirmed that buyers were gone.
Each breakdown triggered a wave of liquidations. CoinGlass data shows $46 million to $80 million in XRP longs wiped out in single sessions. The $1.60 level has already turned buyers away twice since breaking, flipping from support to resistance.
Since the $3.65 peak, XRP has made lower highs and lower lows with no sign of reversal. Its trading volume has also fallen well below December 2025’s averages. The next support for the XRP price sits around $1.25, and if that breaks, $1.00 becomes the next major floor.
Reason 2: Large XRP Holders Are Selling
Large XRP holders are selling during this crash rather than buying. According to Glassnode, exchange balances have fallen roughly 57%, from about 4 billion XRP in early 2025 to around 1.7 billion today. It sounds like accumulation but a portion of those outflows went through OTC desks, where large holders can sell without moving the public price.
Binance reserves have also dropped to roughly 2.6 billion billion XRP, down from over 3.5 billion in September 2025. Santiment tracking indicates wallets holding more than 1 million XRP have sold hundreds of millions of tokens since December, with most transfers occurring during short-lived rallies.
Smaller wallets have added around 200 million XRP, but whale outflows have exceeded that by a wide margin. Glassnode data shows several of the largest wallets have trimmed holdings by 15% to 22%, mostly through OTC sales.
There’s one caveat though as some outflows may be ETF custody moves rather than sales. But exchange inflows have picked up again, and many whales bought below $0.65, meaning they’re still deep in profit. The pattern looks more like selling into rallies than accumulating for a rebound.
Reason 3: Macro Conditions Keep Pressure on XRP Price
The XRP price crash is happening while the broader economy stays tight. The Federal Reserve hasn’t cut rates in 2026, and inflation still sits near 3.2%. When borrowing costs are high and cash yields over 4%, money flows out of speculative assets like crypto.
XRP moves with Bitcoin, and right now that’s a problem. When Bitcoin dropped sharply in early February, XRP followed with a 19% slide in a single session. In selloffs, altcoins often fall harder than Bitcoin, and XRP has underperformed BTC year-to-date. Until Bitcoin stabilizes, XRP is unlikely to bottom on its own.
ETF momentum has also cooled. Weekly inflows have slowed from the $80 million to $200 million pace seen in late 2025 to much lower levels recently—a shift from the strong early institutional demand that drove XRP ETF assets past $1.3 billion. Volatility remains high, with the VIX near 25. Until the Fed signals rate cuts and Bitcoin finds a floor, rallies in XRP are likely to get sold.
What Would Turn XRP Price Bullish Again
For the XRP price outlook to turn bullish, four things need to change.
XRP Needs to Reclaim $1.60
The XRP price needs to reclaim $1.60 and hold it. That level needs to hold on retests with daily trading volume above $4 billion. Without follow-through buying, any bounce risks failing like the previous ones.
Whales Need to Start Buying XRP Again
Large holders need to start accumulating again. Santiment data should show at least 5% growth in the number of wallets holding over 100,000 XRP. Net inflows above 200 million XRP per month into whale wallets would confirm the shift.
A New ETF Catalyst
A major ETF catalyst could shift XRP’s sentiment. A formal XRP ETF filing from a firm like BlackRock would bring institutional access and large, steady buyers. Even $500 million in inflows within the first few months could change the supply picture and signal that big money is entering once again.
Bitcoin Needs to find a Floor
Bitcoin needs to find a floor before XRP can recover as XRP rarely rallies while Bitcoin is falling. A stable Bitcoin above $70,000 would take pressure off the entire crypto market. Without that, any XRP price recovery is vulnerable to getting dragged back down.
Is the XRP Price Done Falling?
Probably not. The three warning signs covered above are still flashing, and none have reversed. The XRP crash has already erased 60% from the its cycle peak, but steep declines can extend further before a real bottom forms.
If the XRP price breaks below $1.25, it could further decline to $1.00 and neyond. A sustained move above $1.60, combined with whale accumulation and a Bitcoin recovery, would change the outlook. Until those signals appear, the risk remains to the downside.
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