XRP’s 30-day realized volatility reached its highest level since March 2025, according to CryptoQuant data, as the token traded near $1.39, up roughly 3% over the past 24 hours at the time of writing. The thirty-day volatility metric hit 1.16, which indicates an expansion in price swings.
The increase in volatility comes after technical analysts noted that XRP’s longer-term structure remains bearish even with the current bounce off the recent low at $1.34. Despite the rebound, higher time frames continue to display a sequence of lower highs and lower lows since the 2025 peak near $2.41.
Realized Volatility Suggests Increased Market Risk
CryptoQuant’s realized volatility indicator calculates the annualized standard deviation of daily returns for thirty days. As the 30-day realized volatility climbs to 1.16, XRP moves into an elevated volatility zone last observed in March 2025.
Historically, this type of volatility setup has preceded breakout or breakdown phases in the token’s price. High volatility generally signals heightened positioning and uncertainty within the market.
This is particularly true if volatility increases during corrective phases compared to clear uptrending phases. However, volatility alone does not provide direction. Traders commonly pair volatility metrics with structural and momentum indicators to determine whether the price is likely to extend its trend or shift direction.
Source: CryptoQuant
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Analyst Notes Bear Flag Setup
Analyst Synexia provided his technical view of the coin’s price via X. He stated that the token remains in a corrective phase and has yet to confirm a bullish structure.
The analyst also noted that both the weekly and daily charts still illustrate a larger-scale downtrend from the high of $2.41. He described the rally from the $1.34-$1.36 support area as shallow.
Meanwhile, the daily MACD remains negative, although contracting momentum suggests selling pressure may be stabilizing rather than reversing outright. Technically, XRP is trading between the immediate support at $1.36 and resistance at $1.43.
If XRP confirms a 4-hour close below $1.36, the price could decline toward $1.34 and potentially extend to $1.31 demand levels. If XRP breaks out of the immediate bearish structure with strong momentum above $1.43 and increasing volume, it could signal a shift in sentiment. Such a move would suggest that the current bearish scenario may no longer remain valid.
Why It Matters
Volatility often begins to rise before significant repricing occurs during corrective phases, meaning that the range of $1.36-$1.43 becomes very important in trying to determine where XRP will go next.
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